Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

On the predictive role of large futures trades for S&P500 index returns: An analysis of COT data as an informative trading signal

Contents:

Author Info

  • Chen, Haojun
  • Maher, Daniela
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    This study examines the information role of large S&P500 futures trades (commercial, noncommercial, dealers, asset managers, and hedge funds) in shaping index returns. Using consolidated data across both standard and E-mini futures contracts, we find that commercial firms’ net trading level appears positively correlated with future index returns but the relationship is not stable across time. Based on more recent data, amongst specialist traders, hedge funds appear superior in terms of access to information and/or trading ability but this advantage is only preserved at high frequency. Therefore, the current weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report – published with a 3-day delay – prevents timely public access to this type of information. Also, trading signals generated by a popular, position-based sentiment index do not produce significant average returns. Overall, this calls into question the reliability of COT-based trading signals used by market professionals.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1042443113000723
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money.

    Volume (Year): 27 (2013)
    Issue (Month): C ()
    Pages: 177-201

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:27:y:2013:i:c:p:177-201

    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/intfin

    Related research

    Keywords: Institutional traders; S&P500 futures; Open interest; COT report; Market efficiency;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Hoffmann, Arvid O.I. & Post, Thomas & Pennings, Joost M.E., 2013. "Individual investor perceptions and behavior during the financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 60-74.
    2. Rob J. Hyndman & Yeasmin Khandakar, . "Automatic Time Series Forecasting: The forecast Package for R," Journal of Statistical Software, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(i03).
    3. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    4. Harris, Lawrence E & Gurel, Eitan, 1986. " Price and Volume Effects Associated with Changes in the S&P 500 List: New Evidence for the Existence of Price Pressures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(4), pages 815-29, September.
    5. Stoll, Hans R. & Whaley, Robert E., 1990. "The Dynamics of Stock Index and Stock Index Futures Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(04), pages 441-468, December.
    6. Ikhlaas Gurrib, 2008. "Do large hedgers and speculators react to events? A stability and events analysis," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 4(4), pages 259-267.
    7. Krista Schwarz, 2012. "Are speculators informed?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 1-23, 01.
    8. Stefan Nagel, 2012. "Evaporating Liquidity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(7), pages 2005-2039.
    9. Bessembinder, Hendrik, 1992. "Systematic Risk, Hedging Pressure, and Risk Premiums in Futures Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(4), pages 637-67.
    10. Anders Wilhelmsson, 2006. "Garch forecasting performance under different distribution assumptions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(8), pages 561-578.
    11. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-87, September.
    12. Aaron Tornell & Chunming Yuan, 2012. "Speculation and hedging in the currency futures markets: Are they informative to the spot exchange rates," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(2), pages 122-151, 02.
    13. Sugato Chakravarty, 2002. "Stealth-Trading: Which Traders' Trades Move Stock Prices?," Finance 0201003, EconWPA.
    14. Kim, Jae H. & Shamsuddin, Abul & Lim, Kian-Ping, 2011. "Stock return predictability and the adaptive markets hypothesis: Evidence from century-long U.S. data," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 868-879.
    15. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
    16. R. Cont, 2001. "Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 223-236.
    17. Alexander F. Wolff, 2013. "Investor sentiment and stock prices in the subprime mortgage crisis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(16), pages 1301-1309, August.
    18. Merton, Robert C, 1987. " A Simple Model of Capital Market Equilibrium with Incomplete Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 483-510, July.
    19. Sanders, Dwight R. & Boris, Keith & Manfredo, Mark, 2004. "Hedgers, funds, and small speculators in the energy futures markets: an analysis of the CFTC's Commitments of Traders reports," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 425-445, May.
    20. Chung, San-Lin & Hung, Chi-Hsiou & Yeh, Chung-Ying, 2012. "When does investor sentiment predict stock returns?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 217-240.
    21. Natividad Blasco & Pilar Corredor & Rafael Santamaria, 2009. "Information spillovers between derivative markets with differences in transaction costs and liquidity," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(10), pages 1039-1047.
    22. Leuthold, Raymond M & Garcia, Philip & Lu, Richard, 1994. "The Returns and Forecasting Ability of Large Traders in the Frozen Pork Bellies Futures Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(3), pages 459-73, July.
    23. Schmeling, Maik, 2006. "Institutional and Individual Sentiment: Smart Money and Noise Trader Risk," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-337, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    24. Xuemin (Sterling) Yan & Zhe Zhang, 2009. "Institutional Investors and Equity Returns: Are Short-term Institutions Better Informed?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(2), pages 893-924, February.
    25. Frans A. de Roon & Theo E. Nijman & Chris Veld, 2000. "Hedging Pressure Effects in Futures Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1437-1456, 06.
    26. Sanders, Dwight R. & Irwin, Scott H. & Merrin, Robert P., 2009. "Smart Money: The Forecasting Ability of CFTC Large Traders in Agricultural Futures Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 34(2), August.
    27. Changyun Wang, 2003. "Investor sentiment, market timing, and futures returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(12), pages 891-898.
    28. Bin Ke & Kathy Petroni, 2004. "How Informed Are Actively Trading Institutional Investors? Evidence from Their Trading Behavior before a Break in a String of Consecutive Earnings Increases," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(5), pages 895-927, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Adam Clements & Neda Todorova, 2014. "The impact of information flow and trading activity on gold and oil futures volatility," NCER Working Paper Series 102, National Centre for Econometric Research.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:27:y:2013:i:c:p:177-201. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.