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The Dynamics of Stock Index and Stock Index Futures Returns

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Author Info
Stoll, Hans R.
Whaley, Robert E.

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Abstract

In rational, efficiently functioning markets, the returns on stock index and stock index futures contracts should be perfectly, contemporaneously correlated. This study investigates the time series properties of 5-minute, intraday returns of stock index and stock index futures contracts, and finds that S P 500 and MM index futures returns tend to lead stock market returns by about five minutes, on average, but occasionally as long as 10 minutes or more, even after stock index returns have been purged of infrequent trading effects; however, the effect is not completely unidirectional, with lagged stock index returns having a mild positive predictive impact on futures returns.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis.

Volume (Year): 25 (1990)
Issue (Month): 04 (December)
Pages: 441-468
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Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:25:y:1990:i:04:p:441-468_00

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  2. Chan, Kalok & Menkveld, Albert J. & Yang, Zhishu, 2006. "Are Domestic Investors Better Informed than Foreign Investors? : Evidence from the Perfectly Segmented Market in China," Serie Research Memoranda 0004, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Pascal Alphonse, 2000. "Efficient Price Discovery in Stock Index Cash and Futures Markets," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ADRES, issue 60, pages 08, Octobre-D. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Berglund, T. & Kabir, R., 1995. "What explains the difference between the futures' price and its "fair" value? : evidence from the european options exchange," Discussion Paper 83, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  10. R. M. Eldridge & Maurice Peat & Max Stevenson, 2003. "The Role of Intra-Day and Inter-Day Data Effects in Determining Linear and Nonlinear Granger Causality Between Australian Futures and Cash Index Markets," Working Paper Series 122, School of Finance and Economics, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
  11. Gerard Gannon & Siu Pang Au-Yeung, 2004. "Regulatory Change, Structural Breaks and Transmission Effects in HSIF abd HSI Volatility," Accounting, Finance, Financial Planning and Insurance Series 2004_11, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
  12. Michael Boluch & Trevor Chamberlain, 1997. "Option volume and stock price behavior: Some evidence from the Chicago board options exchange," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 25(4), pages 358-370, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Gerard L. Gannon, 2009. "Dispersion of Information or Market Behaviour: General Public Trading in S&P500 Index Futures," Accounting, Finance, Financial Planning and Insurance Series 2009_01, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
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  24. Helder Sebastião, 2008. "The partial adjustment factors of FTSE 100 stock index and stock index futures: The informational impact of electronic trading systems," GEMF Working Papers 2008-07, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra. [Downloadable!]
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