Smart Money: The Forecasting Ability of CFTC Large Traders in Agricultural Futures Markets
AbstractThe forecasting content of the Commodity Futures Trading Commissionâ€™s Commitments of Traders (COT) report is investigated. Bivariate Granger causality tests show very little evidence that tradersâ€™ positions are useful in forecasting (leading) returns in 10 agricultural futures markets. However, there is substantial evidence that traders respond to price changes. In particular, noncommercial traders display a tendency for trend following. The other trader classifications display mixed styles, perhaps indicating those trader categories capture a variety of traders. The results generally do not support use of the COT data in predicting price movements in agricultural futures markets.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Western Agricultural Economics Association in its journal Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
Volume (Year): 34 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (August)
agricultural futures markets; commitments of traders; forecasting; prices; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gary B. Gorton & Fumio Hayashi & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2007.
"The Fundamentals of Commodity Futures Returns,"
NBER Working Papers
13249, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dale, Charles & Zyren, John, 1996. "Noncommercial Trading in the Energy Futures Market," MPRA Paper 47463, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Wang, Changyun, 2000. "Investor sentiment and return predictability in agricultural futures markets," MPRA Paper 36425, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2002.
- Röthig, Andreas & Chiarella, Carl, 2006.
"Investigating nonlinear speculation in cattle, corn, and hog futures markets using logistic smooth transition regression models,"
Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics
36774, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute of Economics (VWL).
- Andreas Röthig & Carl Chiarella, 2006. "Investigating Nonlinear Speculation in Cattle, Corn and Hog Futures Markets Using Logistic Smooth Transition Regression Models," Research Paper Series 172, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Roon, F.A. de & Nijman, T.E. & Veld, C.H., 2000.
"Hedging pressure effects in futures markets,"
Open Access publications from Tilburg University
urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-83944, Tilburg University.
- Jian Yang & David Bessler & Hung-Gay Fung, 2004. "The informational role of open interest in futures markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(9), pages 569-573.
- Algieri, Bernardina, 2012. "Price Volatility, Speculation and Excessive Speculation in Commodity Markets: sheep or shepherd behaviour?," Discussion Papers 124390, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
- Chen, Haojun & Maher, Daniela, 2013. "On the predictive role of large futures trades for S&P500 index returns: An analysis of COT data as an informative trading signal," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 177-201.
- Mutafoglu, Takvor H. & Tokat, Ekin & Tokat, Hakki A., 2012. "Forecasting precious metal price movements using trader positions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 273-280.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.