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Smart Money: The Forecasting Ability of CFTC Large Traders in Agricultural Futures Markets

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Author Info

  • Sanders, Dwight R.
  • Irwin, Scott H.
  • Merrin, Robert P.

Abstract

The forecasting content of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Commitments of Traders (COT) report is investigated. Bivariate Granger causality tests show very little evidence that traders’ positions are useful in forecasting (leading) returns in 10 agricultural futures markets. However, there is substantial evidence that traders respond to price changes. In particular, noncommercial traders display a tendency for trend following. The other trader classifications display mixed styles, perhaps indicating those trader categories capture a variety of traders. The results generally do not support use of the COT data in predicting price movements in agricultural futures markets.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54547
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Western Agricultural Economics Association in its journal Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics.

Volume (Year): 34 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (August)
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:54547

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Web page: http://waeaonline.org/
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Related research

Keywords: agricultural futures markets; commitments of traders; forecasting; prices; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance;

References

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  1. Gary B. Gorton & Fumio Hayashi & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2007. "The Fundamentals of Commodity Futures Returns," NBER Working Papers 13249, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Dale, Charles & Zyren, John, 1996. "Noncommercial Trading in the Energy Futures Market," MPRA Paper 47463, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Wang, Changyun, 2000. "Investor sentiment and return predictability in agricultural futures markets," MPRA Paper 36425, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2002.
  4. Röthig, Andreas & Chiarella, Carl, 2006. "Investigating nonlinear speculation in cattle, corn, and hog futures markets using logistic smooth transition regression models," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 36774, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute of Economics (VWL).
  5. Roon, F.A. de & Nijman, T.E. & Veld, C.H., 2000. "Hedging pressure effects in futures markets," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-83944, Tilburg University.
  6. Jian Yang & David Bessler & Hung-Gay Fung, 2004. "The informational role of open interest in futures markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(9), pages 569-573.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Algieri, Bernardina, 2012. "Price Volatility, Speculation and Excessive Speculation in Commodity Markets: sheep or shepherd behaviour?," Discussion Papers 124390, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
  2. Chen, Haojun & Maher, Daniela, 2013. "On the predictive role of large futures trades for S&P500 index returns: An analysis of COT data as an informative trading signal," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 177-201.
  3. Mutafoglu, Takvor H. & Tokat, Ekin & Tokat, Hakki A., 2012. "Forecasting precious metal price movements using trader positions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 273-280.

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