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Information, Trading Demand, and Futures Price Volatility

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  • Changyun Wang

Abstract

We examine the relation between futures price volatility and trading demand by type of trader in the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500‐stock index futures market. We find that volatility covaries negatively with signed speculative demand shocks but is positively related to signed hedging demand shocks. No significant relation between volatility and demand shocks for small traders is found. Our results suggest that changes in positions of large hedgers destabilize the market, whereas changes in positions of large speculators stabilize volatility. Consistent with models with asymmetrically informed traders, we find that large speculators are likely to possess superior forecasting ability, large hedgers behave like positive feedback traders, and small traders are liquidity traders.

Suggested Citation

  • Changyun Wang, 2002. "Information, Trading Demand, and Futures Price Volatility," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 37(2), pages 295-315, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:finrev:v:37:y:2002:i:2:p:295-315
    DOI: 10.1111/1540-6288.00016
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    Cited by:

    1. Adam Clements & Neda Todorova, 2014. "The impact of information flow and trading activity on gold and oil futures volatility," NCER Working Paper Series 102, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    2. Bahloul, Walid & Bouri, Abdelfettah, 2016. "The impact of investor sentiment on returns and conditional volatility in U.S. futures markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 89-102.
    3. Lee A. Smales, 2022. "Trading Behavior in Agricultural Commodity Futures around the 52-Week High," Commodities, MDPI, vol. 1(1), pages 1-15, June.
    4. Fotini Economou & Konstantinos Gavriilidis & Bartosz Gebka & Vasileios Kallinterakis, 2022. "Feedback trading: a review of theory and empirical evidence," Review of Behavioral Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 15(4), pages 429-476, February.
    5. Chien, Cheng-Yi & Lee, Hsiu-Chuan & Tai, Shih-Wen & Liao, Tzu-Hsiang, 2013. "Information, hedging demand, and institutional investors: Evidence from the Taiwan Futures Exchange," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 394-414.
    6. Smales, Lee A., 2016. "Trading behavior in S&P 500 index futures," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 46-55.
    7. Yu-Lun Chen & Yin-Feng Gau & Wen-Ju Liao, 2016. "Trading activities and price discovery in foreign currency futures markets," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 793-818, May.
    8. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Menelaos Karanasos & Stavroula Yfanti & Aris Kartsaklas, 2021. "Investors' trading behaviour and stock market volatility during crisis periods: A dual long‐memory model for the Korean Stock Exchange," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 4441-4461, July.
    9. Yensen Ni & Min-Yuh Day & Paoyu Huang, 2020. "Trading stocks following sharp movements in the USDX, GBP/USD, and USD/CNY," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-17, December.
    10. Karanasos, M. & Kartsaklas, A., 2009. "Dual long-memory, structural breaks and the link between turnover and the range-based volatility," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 838-851, December.
    11. Bahloul, Walid & Bouri, Abdelfettah, 2016. "Profitability of return and sentiment-based investment strategies in US futures markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 254-270.
    12. Chang, Ya-Kai & Chen, Yu-Lun & Chou, Robin K. & Gau, Yin-Feng, 2013. "The effectiveness of position limits: Evidence from the foreign exchange futures markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4501-4509.
    13. Elina Pradkhan, 2016. "Information Content of Trading Activity in Precious Metals Futures Markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 421-456, May.
    14. Todorova, Neda & Clements, Adam E., 2018. "The volatility-volume relationship in the LME futures market for industrial metals," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 111-124.
    15. Kam C. Chan & Louis T. W. Cheng & Peter P. Lung, 2005. "Asymmetric Volatility and Trading Activity in Index Futures Options," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 381-407, August.
    16. Adam E. Clements & Neda Todorova, 2016. "Information Flow, Trading Activity and Commodity Futures Volatility," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(1), pages 88-104, January.
    17. Yiuman Tse & Michael R. Williams, 2013. "Does Index Speculation Impact Commodity Prices? An Intraday Analysis," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 48(3), pages 365-383, August.

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