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Returns to Individual Traders of Futures: Aggregate Results

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  • Hartzmark, Michael L
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    Abstract

    By means of a data set previously unavailable for academic research, actual trading histories of individual futures traders are examined. With this more detailed data, the author is able to (1) test the risk/return hypothesis directly; (2) include a much larger segment of the market than before; and (3) use actual instead of hypothetical t rading strategies. It is shown that the commercial (hedging) traders are most profitable, while noncommercial (speculative) traders earn n egative or zero profits. Because speculators are not receiving reward s for the risks they willingly absorb, the theory of normal backwarda tion and its extension can be rejected. Copyright 1987 by University of Chicago Press.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by University of Chicago Press in its journal Journal of Political Economy.

    Volume (Year): 95 (1987)
    Issue (Month): 6 (December)
    Pages: 1292-1306

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    Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:v:95:y:1987:i:6:p:1292-1306

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    Cited by:
    1. Kocagil, Ahmet E. & Topyan, Kudret, 1997. "An empirical note on demand for speculation and futures risk premium: A Kalman Filter application," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 77-93.
    2. Konstantinidi, Eirini & Skiadopoulos, George, 2011. "Are VIX futures prices predictable? An empirical investigation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 543-560, April.
    3. Shafiqur Rahman & M. Shahid Ebrahim, 2005. "The Futures Pricing Puzzle," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 35, Society for Computational Economics.
    4. Sykuta, Michael E., 1996. "Futures trading and supply contracting in the oil refining industry," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 317-334, July.
    5. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2014. "Effects of Index-Fund Investing on Commodity Futures Prices," NBER Working Papers 19892, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Aaron Tornell & Chunming Yuan, . "Speculation and Hedging in the Currency Futures Markets: Are They Informative to the Spot Exchange Rates," UMBC Economics Department Working Papers 09-116, UMBC Department of Economics, revised 01 Nov 2009.
    7. Carl R. Zulauf & Scott H. Irwin, 1997. "Market Efficiency and Marketing to Enhance Income of Crop Producers," Finance 9711004, EconWPA.
    8. Yoon, Byung-Sam & Brorsen, B. Wade, 2005. "Can Multiyear Rollover Hedging Increase Mean Returns?," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 37(01), April.
    9. Jonathan Kearns & Phil Manners, 2004. "The Profitability of Speculators in Currency Futures Markets," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2004-07, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    10. Ing-Haw Cheng & Wei Xiong, 2013. "The Financialization of Commodity Markets," NBER Working Papers 19642, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. W. Bruce Canoles & Sarahelen R. Thompson & Scott H. Irwin & Virginia G. France & ., 1997. "An Analysis of the Profiles and Motivations of Habitual Commodity Speculators," Finance 9705001, EconWPA.
    12. Robert Weiner, 2006. "Do Birds of a Feather Flock Together? Speculator Herding in the World Oil Market," Discussion Papers dp-06-31, Resources For the Future.
    13. Wang, Changyun, 2001. "The behavior and performance of major types of futures traders," MPRA Paper 36426, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jul 2002.
    14. Goulas, Lambros & Skiadopoulos, George, 2012. "Are freight futures markets efficient? Evidence from IMAREX," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 644-659.
    15. Büyükşahin, Bahattin & Robe, Michel A., 2014. "Speculators, commodities and cross-market linkages," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 38-70.
    16. Frank, Julieta & Garcia, Philip, 2005. "Time-Varying Risk Premium or Informational Inefficiency? Further Evidence in Agricultural Futures Markets," 2005 Conference, April 18-19, 2005, St. Louis, Missouri 19051, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    17. Bryant, Henry L. & Bessler, David A. & Haigh, Michael S., 2003. "Causality In Futures Markets," Working Papers 28574, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    18. Chang, Eric C. & Michael Pinegar, J. & Schachter, Barry, 1997. "Interday variations in volume, variance and participation of large speculators," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 797-810, June.
    19. Scott H. Irwin & Dwight R. Sanders, 2011. "Index Funds, Financialization, and Commodity Futures Markets," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 33(1), pages 1-31.
    20. Adjemian, Michael K. & Garcia, Philip & Irwin, Scott & Smith, Aaron, 2013. "Non-Convergence in Domestic Commodity Futures Markets: Causes, Consequences, and Remedies," Economic Information Bulletin 155381, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.

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