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Asymmetric volatility of basis and the theory of storage

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  • Andre H. Gao
  • George H. K. Wang

Abstract

The theory of storage states that the marginal convenience yield on inventory falls at a decreasing rate as inventory increases. Previous literature has tested this hypothesis using the so‐called “direct test” approach, which employs a direct measurement of inventory levels, or the “indirect test” approach, which examines the relative variation of spot and futures prices and the relative variation of negative basis to positive basis as alternative proxies for inventory levels. The rationale behind the indirect test is based on the hypothesis that futures prices are less variable than spot prices when inventory is low, and have similar variability when inventory is high. The authors propose a “unified test” of the theory of storage that incorporates aspects of both direct and indirect tests in an ARMAX‐asymmetric GARCH model framework. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 25:399–418, 2005

Suggested Citation

  • Andre H. Gao & George H. K. Wang, 2005. "Asymmetric volatility of basis and the theory of storage," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 399-418, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:25:y:2005:i:4:p:399-418
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    Cited by:

    1. Niaz Bashiri Behmiri, Maryam Ahmadi, Juha-Pekka Junttila, and Matteo Manera, 2021. "Financial Stress and Basis in Energy Markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
    2. Maryam Ahmadi & Niaz Bashiri Behmiri & Matteo Manera, 2020. "The theory of storage in the crude oil futures market, the role of financial conditions," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(7), pages 1160-1175, July.
    3. Sang‐Kuck Chung, 2009. "Out‐of‐sample Hedge Performances for Risk Management in China Commodity Futures Markets," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 23(3), pages 349-372, September.
    4. Brajesh Kumar, 2016. "Asymmetric Volatility of Net Convenience Yield: Evidence from Indian Commodity Futures Markets," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 3205752, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    5. Michail Filippidis & George Filis & Georgios Magkonis & Panagiotis Tzouvanas, 2023. "Evaluating robust determinants of the WTI/Brent oil price differential: A dynamic model averaging analysis," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 807-825, June.
    6. Omura, Akihiro & Todorova, Neda & Li, Bin & Chung, Richard, 2015. "Convenience yield and inventory accessibility: Impact of regional market conditions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-11.

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