IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aen/journl/ej42-5-bashiri.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Financial Stress and Basis in Energy Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Niaz Bashiri Behmiri, Maryam Ahmadi, Juha-Pekka Junttila, and Matteo Manera

Abstract

We investigate the relationship between energy commodities bases, inventory and financial stress from 1994 to 2018. We find that, from the 1998 Asian crisis the effect of financial stress on energy commodities bases gradually increased and from the 2008 crisis became positive, while the effect of inventory showed a gradual decline over time. The reactions of bases to changes in financial stress is nonlinear, as they are higher in the high financial stress periods. This is more profound in crude oil market than heating oil and natural gas. Moreover, the reactions of bases to the changes in inventory is nonlinear, as the reactions are lower when the inventory level is high confirming the theory of storage. We suggest that, in energy market, changes of inventory do not fully explain the variation of energy commodities bases, as the connection between commodity and financial markets increased during the recent years.

Suggested Citation

  • Niaz Bashiri Behmiri, Maryam Ahmadi, Juha-Pekka Junttila, and Matteo Manera, 2021. "Financial Stress and Basis in Energy Markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
    • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:ej42-5-bashiri
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.iaee.org/en/publications/ejarticle.aspx?id=3728
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to IAEE members and subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kastner, Gregor & Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia, 2014. "Ancillarity-sufficiency interweaving strategy (ASIS) for boosting MCMC estimation of stochastic volatility models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 408-423.
    2. Chen, Wang & Hamori, Shigeyuki & Kinkyo, Takuji, 2014. "Macroeconomic impacts of oil prices and underlying financial shocks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-12.
    3. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2015. "Commodity Futures Prices: Some Evidence on Forecast Power, Premiums, and the Theory of Storage," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anastasios G Malliaris & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 4, pages 79-102, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
    5. Dangl, Thomas & Halling, Michael, 2012. "Predictive regressions with time-varying coefficients," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 157-181.
    6. Wan, Jer-Yuh & Kao, Chung-Wei, 2015. "Interactions between oil and financial markets — Do conditions of financial stress matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 160-175.
    7. Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Inventories and the Short-Run Dynamics of Commodity Prices," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 25(1), pages 141-159, Spring.
    8. Ron Alquist & Lutz Kilian, 2010. "What do we learn from the price of crude oil futures?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 539-573.
    9. Silvennoinen, Annastiina & Thorp, Susan, 2013. "Financialization, crisis and commodity correlation dynamics," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 42-65.
    10. Bitto, Angela & Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia, 2019. "Achieving shrinkage in a time-varying parameter model framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 210(1), pages 75-97.
    11. Büyükşahin, Bahattin & Robe, Michel A., 2014. "Speculators, commodities and cross-market linkages," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 38-70.
    12. Nazlioglu, Saban & Soytas, Ugur & Gupta, Rangan, 2015. "Oil prices and financial stress: A volatility spillover analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 278-288.
    13. Miguel A.G. Belmonte & Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2014. "Hierarchical Shrinkage in Time‐Varying Parameter Models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 80-94, January.
    14. Bailey, Warren & Chang, K C, 1993. "Macroeconomic Influences and the Variability of the Commodity Futures Basis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 555-573, June.
    15. Nikitopoulos, Christina Sklibosios & Squires, Matthew & Thorp, Susan & Yeung, Danny, 2017. "Determinants of the crude oil futures curve: Inventory, consumption and volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 53-67.
    16. Kenneth J. Singleton, 2014. "Investor Flows and the 2008 Boom/Bust in Oil Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(2), pages 300-318, February.
    17. Geman, Hélyette & Ohana, Steve, 2009. "Forward curves, scarcity and price volatility in oil and natural gas markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 576-585, July.
    18. Delatte, Anne-Laure & Lopez, Claude, 2013. "Commodity and equity markets: Some stylized facts from a copula approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5346-5356.
    19. Jacquier, Eric & Polson, Nicholas G & Rossi, Peter E, 2002. "Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Volatility Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 69-87, January.
    20. Suleyman Basak & Anna Pavlova, 2016. "A Model of Financialization of Commodities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(4), pages 1511-1556, August.
    21. Aboura, Sofiane & Roye, Bjoern van, 2017. "Financial stress and economic dynamics: The case of France," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 57-73.
    22. Jacquier, Eric & Polson, Nicholas G & Rossi, Peter E, 1994. "Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Volatility Models: Comments: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 413-417, October.
    23. Sung Je Byun, 2017. "Speculation in Commodity Futures Markets, Inventories and the Price of Crude Oil," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
    24. Evgenidis, Anastasios & Tsagkanos, Athanasios, 2017. "Asymmetric effects of the international transmission of US financial stress. A threshold-VAR approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 69-81.
    25. Robert C Ready, 2018. "Oil Prices and the Stock Market [The vix, the variance premium and stock market volatility]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(1), pages 155-176.
    26. Das, Debojyoti & Kumar, Surya Bhushan & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hasim, Haslifah M., 2018. "On the relationship of gold, crude oil, stocks with financial stress: A causality-in-quantiles approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 169-174.
    27. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    28. Apostolos Serletis & Vaughn W. Hulleman, 2007. "Business Cycles and the Behavior of Energy Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Quantitative And Empirical Analysis Of Energy Markets, chapter 4, pages 38-45, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    29. Reboredo, Juan C. & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2016. "Do financial stress and policy uncertainty have an impact on the energy and metals markets? A quantile regression approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 284-298.
    30. Sari, Ramazan & Soytas, Ugur & Hacihasanoglu, Erk, 2011. "Do global risk perceptions influence world oil prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 515-524, May.
    31. Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia & Wagner, Helga, 2010. "Stochastic model specification search for Gaussian and partial non-Gaussian state space models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 154(1), pages 85-100, January.
    32. Hamilton, James D. & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2014. "Risk premia in crude oil futures prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 9-37.
    33. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2003. "Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1082-1089, November.
    34. Ing-Haw Cheng & Andrei Kirilenko & Wei Xiong, 2015. "Convective Risk Flows in Commodity Futures Markets," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(5), pages 1733-1781.
    35. Ng, Victor K & Pirrong, Stephen Craig, 1994. "Fundamentals and Volatility: Storage, Spreads, and the Dynamics of Metals Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(2), pages 203-230, April.
    36. Andre H. Gao & George H. K. Wang, 2005. "Asymmetric volatility of basis and the theory of storage," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 399-418, April.
    37. Jouchi Nakajima, 2011. "Time-Varying Parameter VAR Model with Stochastic Volatility: An Overview of Methodology and Empirical Applications," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 29, pages 107-142, November.
    38. Robert S. Pindyck, 2001. "The Dynamics of Commodity Spot and Futures Markets: A Primer," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 1-30.
    39. Kastner, Gregor, 2016. "Dealing with Stochastic Volatility in Time Series Using the R Package stochvol," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 69(i05).
    40. Qadan, Mahmoud & Idilbi-Bayaa, Yasmeen, 2020. "Risk appetite and oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    41. Dong W. Cho & Gerald S. McDougall, 1990. "The supply of storage in energy futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(6), pages 611-621, December.
    42. Symeonidis, Lazaros & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Brooks, Chris & Lazar, Emese, 2012. "Futures basis, inventory and commodity price volatility: An empirical analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2651-2663.
    43. Junttila, Juha & Pesonen, Juho & Raatikainen, Juhani, 2018. "Commodity market based hedging against stock market risk in times of financial crisis: The case of crude oil and gold," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 255-280.
    44. Geman, Hélyette & Smith, William O., 2013. "Theory of storage, inventory and volatility in the LME base metals," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 18-28.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ramesh Adhikari & Kyle J. Putnam, 2024. "Financial Market Stress and Commodity Returns: A Dynamic Approach," Commodities, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-23, January.
    2. Chen, Louisa & Verousis, Thanos & Wang, Kai & Zhou, Zhiping, 2023. "Financial stress and commodity price volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Maryam Ahmadi & Niaz Bashiri Behmiri & Matteo Manera, 2020. "The theory of storage in the crude oil futures market, the role of financial conditions," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(7), pages 1160-1175, July.
    2. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    3. Kang, Boda & Nikitopoulos, Christina Sklibosios & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2020. "Economic determinants of oil futures volatility: A term structure perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    4. Sung Je Byun, 2017. "Speculation in Commodity Futures Markets, Inventories and the Price of Crude Oil," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
    5. Bitto, Angela & Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia, 2019. "Achieving shrinkage in a time-varying parameter model framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 210(1), pages 75-97.
    6. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filippidis, Michail & Filis, George & Gabauer, David, 2021. "A closer look into the global determinants of oil price volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    7. Valenti, Daniele & Bastianin, Andrea & Manera, Matteo, 2023. "A weekly structural VAR model of the US crude oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    8. Nikitopoulos, Christina Sklibosios & Squires, Matthew & Thorp, Susan & Yeung, Danny, 2017. "Determinants of the crude oil futures curve: Inventory, consumption and volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 53-67.
    9. Michel A. Robe & Jonathan Wallen, 2016. "Fundamentals, Derivatives Market Information and Oil Price Volatility," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(4), pages 317-344, April.
    10. Sylvia Fruhwirth-Schnatter & Peter Knaus, 2022. "Sparse Bayesian State-Space and Time-Varying Parameter Models," Papers 2207.12147, arXiv.org.
    11. Bredin, Don & O'Sullivan, Conall & Spencer, Simon, 2021. "Forecasting WTI crude oil futures returns: Does the term structure help?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    12. Bonnier, Jean-Baptiste, 2021. "Speculation and informational efficiency in commodity futures markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    13. Ron Alquist & Gregory Bauer & Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2014. "What Does the Convenience Yield Curve Tell Us about the Crude Oil Market?," Staff Working Papers 14-42, Bank of Canada.
    14. Peter Knaus & Sylvia Fruhwirth-Schnatter, 2023. "The Dynamic Triple Gamma Prior as a Shrinkage Process Prior for Time-Varying Parameter Models," Papers 2312.10487, arXiv.org.
    15. Annalisa Cadonna & Sylvia Fruhwirth-Schnatter & Peter Knaus, 2019. "Triple the gamma -- A unifying shrinkage prior for variance and variable selection in sparse state space and TVP models," Papers 1912.03100, arXiv.org.
    16. Xiao, Qin & Yan, Meilan & Zhang, Dalu, 2023. "Commodity market financialization, herding and signals: An asymmetric GARCH R-vine copula approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    17. Adams, Zeno & Collot, Solène & Kartsakli, Maria, 2020. "Have commodities become a financial asset? Evidence from ten years of Financialization," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    18. Jacopo Piana & Daniele Bianchi, 2017. "Expected Spot Prices and the Dynamics of Commodity Risk Premia," 2017 Meeting Papers 1149, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Duc Huynh, Toan Luu & Burggraf, Tobias & Nasir, Muhammad Ali, 2020. "Financialisation of natural resources & instability caused by risk transfer in commodity markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    20. Ames, Matthew & Bagnarosa, Guillaume & Matsui, Tomoko & Peters, Gareth W. & Shevchenko, Pavel V., 2020. "Which risk factors drive oil futures price curves?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aen:journl:ej42-5-bashiri. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: David Williams (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iaeeeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.