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Macroeconomic Influences and the Variability of the Commodity Futures Basis

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  • Bailey, Warren
  • Chang, K C
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    Abstract

    The authors provide evidence that the spread between commodity spot and futures prices (the basis) reflects the macroeconomic risks common to all asset markets. The basis of many commodities is correlated with the stock index dividend yield and corporate bond quality spread. Explanatory power is related to exposure to macroeconomic fluctuations: about 40 percent of the variation in the basis of a portfolio of commodities with high business cycle sensitivity is explained by the stock and bond yields. Further diagnostics indicate that these associations are largely due to the presence of risk premiums, rather than spot price forecasts, in the basis. Copyright 1993 by American Finance Association.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal Journal of Finance.

    Volume (Year): 48 (1993)
    Issue (Month): 2 (June)
    Pages: 555-73

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    Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:48:y:1993:i:2:p:555-73

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    Cited by:
    1. Wai Mun Fong & Kim Hock See, 2001. "Modelling the conditional volatility of commodity index futures as a regime switching process," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(2), pages 133-163.
    2. Pandey, Ajay, . "Hedging Effectiveness of Constant and Time Varying Hedge Ratio in Indian Stock and Commodity Futures Markets," IIMA Working Papers WP2008-06-01, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    3. Joelle Miffre, 2000. "The Abnormal Performance of Bond Returns," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2000-03, Henley Business School, Reading University.
    4. Chevallier, Julien, 2009. "Carbon futures and macroeconomic risk factors: A view from the EU ETS," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 614-625, July.
    5. George M. Korniotis, 2009. "Does speculation affect spot price levels? the case of metals with and without futures markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Miffre, Joelle, 2001. "Economic activity and time variation in expected futures returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 73-79, October.
    7. Sadorsky, Perry, 2002. "Time-varying risk premiums in petroleum futures prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 539-556, November.
    8. Ralph S.J. Koijen & Tobias J. Moskowitz & Lasse Heje Pedersen & Evert B. Vrugt, 2013. "Carry," NBER Working Papers 19325, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Pagano, Patrizio & Pisani, Massimiliano, 2009. "Risk-adjusted forecasts of oil prices," Working Paper Series 0999, European Central Bank.
    10. Vít Pošta, 2009. "The Role of fundamentals factors of empirical analysis of the Prague stock exchange," Ekonomika a Management, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2009(3).
    11. Elfakhani, Said & Visiting Professor & Wionzek, Ritchie J. & Chaudhury, Mohammed, 1999. "Thin trading and mispricing profit opportunities in the Canadian commodity futures," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 37-58.
    12. Ron Alquist & Lutz Kilian, 2010. "What do we learn from the price of crude oil futures?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 539-573.
    13. Wai Mun Fong & Kim Hock See, 2003. "Basis variations and regime shifts in the oil futures market," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(5), pages 499-513.
    14. John Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum, 1996. "Time-Varying Risk Premia in the Foreign Currency Futures Basis," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 281., Boston College Department of Economics.
    15. Patricia Fraser & Andrew McKaig, 2001. "Basis variation and a common source of risk: evidence from UK futures markets," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 39-62.
    16. Frans A. de Roon & Rob W. J. van den Goorbergh & Theo E. Nijman, 2004. "An Anatomy of Futures Returns: Risk Premiums and Trading Strategies," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 757, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    17. Elfakhani, Said & Wionzek, Ritchie J., 1997. "Intermarket spread opportunities between Canadian and American agricultural futures," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 361-377.

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