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Macroeconomic Influences and the Variability of the Commodity Futures Basis

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Author Info
 Bailey, Warren
Chang, K C
Abstract

The authors provide evidence that the spread between commodity spot and futures prices (the basis) reflects the macroeconomic risks common to all asset markets. The basis of many commodities is correlated with the stock index dividend yield and corporate bond quality spread. Explanatory power is related to exposure to macroeconomic fluctuations: about 40 percent of the variation in the basis of a portfolio of commodities with high business cycle sensitivity is explained by the stock and bond yields. Further diagnostics indicate that these associations are largely due to the presence of risk premiums, rather than spot price forecasts, in the basis. Copyright 1993 by American Finance Association.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 48 (1993)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 555-73
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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:48:y:1993:i:2:p:555-73

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  1. Patrizio Pagano & Massimiliano Pisani, 2009. "Risk-adjusted forecasts of oil prices," Working Paper Series 999, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Patricia Fraser, Andrew J. McKaig, 2001. "Basis variation and a common source of risk: evidence from UK futures markets," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 39-62, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. John Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum, 1996. "Time-Varying Risk Premia in the Foreign Currency Futures Basis," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 281., Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. George M. Korniotis, 2009. "Does speculation affect spot price levels? the case of metals with and without futures markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  5. Wai Mun Fong & Kim Hock See, 2001. "Modelling the conditional volatility of commodity index futures as a regime switching process," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(2), pages 133-163. [Downloadable!]
  6. Frans A. de Roon & Rob W. J. van den Goorbergh & Theo E. Nijman, 2004. "An Anatomy of Futures Returns: Risk Premiums and Trading Strategies," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 757, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  7. Wai Mun Fong & Kim Hock See, 2003. "Basis variations and regime shifts in the oil futures market," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 9(5), pages 499-513, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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