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Business Cycles and the Behavior of Energy Prices

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  • Apostolos Serletis
  • Vaughn Hullernan

Abstract

This paper tests the theory of storage-the hypothesis that the marginal convenience yield on inventory falls at a decreasing rate as inventory increases in energy markets (crude oil, heating oil, and unleaded gas markets). We use the Fama and French (1988) indirect test, based on the relative variation in spot and futures prices. The results suggest that the theory holds for the energy markets.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by International Association for Energy Economics in its journal The Energy Journal.

Volume (Year): Volume15 (1994)
Issue (Month): Number 2 ()
Pages: 125-134

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Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:1994v15-02-a07

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  1. Serletis, Apostolos, 1991. "Rational expectations, risk and efficiency in energy futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 111-115, April.
  2. French, Kenneth R, 1986. "Detecting Spot Price Forecasts in Futures Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(2), pages S39-54, April.
  3. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
  4. Lester G. Telser, 1958. "Futures Trading and the Storage of Cotton and Wheat," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 233.
  5. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. " Business Cycles and the Behavior of Metals Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(5), pages 1075-93, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Thoma, Mark, 2004. "Electrical energy usage over the business cycle," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 463-485, May.

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