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Theory of Storage: An Empirical Assessment of the European Natural Gas Market

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  • Marcus Stronzik
  • Margarethe Rammerstorfer
  • Anne Neumann

Abstract

We analyze the relation between European natural gas storage facilities and price patterns at major trading points, considering the theory of storage to derive a testable hypothesis imposed by the non-arbitrage condition. To model the efficiency of the natural gas market, we apply two indirect tests absent the scarcity of European inventory data. We find that operators of storage facilities realize seasonal arbitrage profits, and that market performance overall is substantially distinct from the competitive benchmark.

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File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.89005.de/dp821.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 821.

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Length: 15 p.
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp821

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Keywords: Storage; energy commodity; natural gas; convenience yield;

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References

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  1. Anne Neumann & Boriss Siliverstovs & Christian von Hirschhausen, 2006. "Convergence of European spot market prices for natural gas? A real-time analysis of market integration using the Kalman Filter," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(11), pages 727-732.
  2. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1987. "Commodity Futures Prices: Some Evidence on Forecast Power, Premiums,and the Theory of Storage," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(1), pages 55-73, January.
  3. Chiou Wei, Song Zan & Zhu, Zhen, 2006. "Commodity convenience yield and risk premium determination: The case of the U.S. natural gas market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 523-534, July.
  4. Modjtahedi, Bagher & Movassagh, Nahid, 2005. "Natural-gas futures: Bias, predictive performance, and the theory of storage," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 617-637, July.
  5. French, Kenneth R, 1986. "Detecting Spot Price Forecasts in Futures Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(2), pages S39-54, April.
  6. Ng, Victor K & Pirrong, Stephen Craig, 1994. "Fundamentals and Volatility: Storage, Spreads, and the Dynamics of Metals Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(2), pages 203-30, April.
  7. Hirschhausen, Christian von, 2008. "Infrastructure, regulation, investment and security of supply: A case study of the restructured US natural gas market," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 1-10, March.
  8. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  9. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. " Business Cycles and the Behavior of Metals Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(5), pages 1075-93, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Stronzik, Marcus & Rammerstorfer, Margarethe & Neumann, Anne, 2009. "Does the European natural gas market pass the competitive benchmark of the theory of storage? Indirect tests for three major trading points," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5432-5439, December.

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