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Convergence of European Spot Market Prices for Natural Gas? A Real-Time Analysis of Market Integration using the Kalman Filter

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  • Neumann, Anne
  • Siliverstovs, Boriss

Abstract

This paper provides a textbook example of integration between commodity markets, and the subsequent price convergence or absence thereof. We analyze price relations between spot markets for natural gas in Europe. We apply time-varying coefficient estimation applying the Kalman filter, to test whether price convergence between different locations is really taking place. Our results reveal that the construction of a pipeline between the UK and Zeebrugge (Belgium) has led to almost perfect price convergence between these locations; on the other hand, liberalization on the continent does not seem to be working yet. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Dresden University of Technology, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics in its series Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics with number 05/05.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:tuddps:0505

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Postal: 01062 Dresden
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Fax: ++49 351 463 7739
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Web page: http://www.tu-dresden.de/wiwi/
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Keywords: integration; convergence; econometrics; natural gas;

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  1. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  2. Serletis, Apostolos, 1994. "A cointegration analysis of petroleum futures prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 93-97, April.
  3. W. David Walls, 1994. "Price Convergence Across Natural Gas Fields and City Markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 37-48.
  4. Asche, Frank & Osmundsen, Petter & Tveteras, Ragnar, 2002. "European market integration for gas? Volume flexibility and political risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 249-265, May.
  5. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1994. "Time-Varying World Market Integration," NBER Working Papers 4843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
  7. Guillaume L'Hegaret & Boriss Siliverstovs & Christian von Hirschhausen, 2004. "International Market Integration for Natural Gas? A Cointegration Analysis of Prices in Europe, North America and Japan," Working Papers 0402, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
  8. Marlin King & Milan Cuc, 1996. "Price Convergence in North American Natural Gas Spot Markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 17-42.
  9. Serletis, Apostolos & King, Martin, 1997. "Common Stochastic Trends and Convergence of European Union Stock Markets," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 65(1), pages 44-57, January.
  10. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, July.
  11. Donggyu Sul, 1999. "Does Ex post uncovered interest differential reflect the degrees of capital mobility?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 97-102.
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Cited by:
  1. Growitsch, Christian & Stronzik, Marcus & Nepal, Rabindra, 2012. "Price convergence and information efficiency in German natural gas markets," EWI Working Papers 2012-5, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln.
  2. Robinson, Terry, 2007. "Have European gas prices converged?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 2347-2351, April.
  3. Marcus Stronzik & Margarethe Rammerstorfer & Anne Neumann, 2008. "Theory of Storage: An Empirical Assessment of the European Natural Gas Market," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 821, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  4. Christian Hirschhausen & Anne Neumann, 2008. "Long-Term Contracts and Asset Specificity Revisited: An Empirical Analysis of Producer–Importer Relations in the Natural Gas Industry," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 131-143, March.
  5. Christian von Hirschhausen & Thorsten Beckers, 2004. "Reform der Erdgaswirtschaft in der EU und in Deutschland: wie viel Regulierung braucht der Wettbewerb?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 440, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  6. Erik D. Delarue & A. Denny Ellerman & William D. D’haeseleer, 2008. "SHORT-TERM CO2 Abatement in the European Power Sector," Working Papers 0808, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
  7. Franziska Holz & Christian von Hirschhausen & Claudia Kemfert, 2006. "A Strategic Model of European Gas Supply (GASMOD)," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 551, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  8. Nepal, R. & Jamasb, T., 2011. "Market Integration, Efficiency, and Interconnectors: The Irish Single Electricity Market," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1144, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  9. Rico Ihle & Linde Götz & Ofir D. Rubin, 2011. "State-Space Cointegration Modeling for the Analysis of Exogenous Shocks to Prices in Israeli-Palestinian Food Trade," Courant Research Centre: Poverty, Equity and Growth - Discussion Papers 100, Courant Research Centre PEG.
  10. Böckers, Veit & Heimeshoff, Ulrich, 2012. "The extent of European power markets," DICE Discussion Papers 50, Heinrich‐Heine‐Universität Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
  11. Anne Neumann, 2009. "Linking Natural Gas Markets - Is LNG Doing its Job?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 187-200.
  12. Stronzik, Marcus & Rammerstorfer, Margarethe & Neumann, Anne, 2009. "Does the European natural gas market pass the competitive benchmark of the theory of storage? Indirect tests for three major trading points," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5432-5439, December.
  13. Arano, Kathleen & Velikova, Marieta, 2010. "Estimating the long-run equilibrium relationship: The case of city-gate and residential natural gas prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 901-907, July.
  14. Lochner, Stefan & Dieckhoener, Caroline, 2008. "Analyse von Grenzkostenpreisen im Europaeischen Gasmarkt," EWI Working Papers 2008-5, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln.

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