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Convergence of European Spot Market Prices for Natural Gas? A Real-Time Analysis of Market Integration using the Kalman Filter

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  • Neumann, Anne
  • Siliverstovs, Boriss

Abstract

This paper provides a textbook example of integration between commodity markets, and the subsequent price convergence or absence thereof. We analyze price relations between spot markets for natural gas in Europe. We apply time-varying coefficient estimation applying the Kalman filter, to test whether price convergence between different locations is really taking place. Our results reveal that the construction of a pipeline between the UK and Zeebrugge (Belgium) has led to almost perfect price convergence between these locations; on the other hand, liberalization on the continent does not seem to be working yet. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Dresden University of Technology, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics in its series Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics with number 05/05.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:tuddps:0505

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Postal: 01062 Dresden
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Web page: http://www.tu-dresden.de/wiwi/
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Keywords: integration; convergence; econometrics; natural gas;

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References

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  1. Guillaume L'Hegaret & Boriss Siliverstovs & Christian von Hirschhausen, 2004. "International Market Integration for Natural Gas? A Cointegration Analysis of Prices in Europe, North America and Japan," Working Papers 0402, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
  2. Frank Asche, Petter Osmundsen, Ragnar Tveteras, 2001. "Market integration for natural gas in Europe," International Journal of Global Energy Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 16(4), pages 300-312.
  3. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  4. Serletis, Apostolos & King, Martin, 1997. "Common Stochastic Trends and Convergence of European Union Stock Markets," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 65(1), pages 44-57, January.
  5. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
  6. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1994. "Time-Varying World Market Integration," NBER Working Papers 4843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
  8. Asche, Frank & Osmundsen, Petter & Tveteras, Ragnar, 2002. "European market integration for gas? Volume flexibility and political risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 249-265, May.
  9. W. David Walls, 1994. "Price Convergence Across Natural Gas Fields and City Markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 37-48.
  10. Donggyu Sul, 1999. "Does Ex post uncovered interest differential reflect the degrees of capital mobility?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 97-102.
  11. Marlin King & Milan Cuc, 1996. "Price Convergence in North American Natural Gas Spot Markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 17-42.
  12. Haldane, A G & Hall, S G, 1991. "Sterling's Relationship with the Dollar and the Deutschemark: 1976-89," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(406), pages 436-43, May.
  13. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2002. "Is the Government's intertemporal budget constraint fulfilled in Sweden? An application of the Kalman filter," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(7), pages 433-439.
  14. Serletis, Apostolos, 1994. "A cointegration analysis of petroleum futures prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 93-97, April.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Anne Neumann & Christian von Hirschhausen, 2006. "Long-Term Contracts and Asset Specificity Revisited – An Empirical Analysis of producer-Importer Relations in the Natural Gas Industry," Working Papers 0610, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
  2. Stronzik, Marcus & Rammerstorfer, Margarethe & Neumann, Anne, 2009. "Does the European natural gas market pass the competitive benchmark of the theory of storage? Indirect tests for three major trading points," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5432-5439, December.
  3. Robinson, Terry, 2007. "Have European gas prices converged?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 2347-2351, April.
  4. Arano, Kathleen & Velikova, Marieta, 2010. "Estimating the long-run equilibrium relationship: The case of city-gate and residential natural gas prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 901-907, July.
  5. Nick, Sebastian, 2013. "Price Formation and Intertemporal Arbitrage within a Low-Liquidity Framework: Empirical Evidence from European Natural Gas Markets," EWI Working Papers 2013-14, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln.
  6. Christian von Hirschhausen & Thorsten Beckers, 2004. "Reform der Erdgaswirtschaft in der EU und in Deutschland: wie viel Regulierung braucht der Wettbewerb?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 440, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  7. Growitsch, Christian & Stronzik, Marcus & Nepal, Rabindra, 2012. "Price convergence and information efficiency in German natural gas markets," EWI Working Papers 2012-5, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln.
  8. Anne Neumann, 2008. "Linking Natural Gas Markets: Is LNG Doing Its Job?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 822, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  9. Franziska Holz & Christian von Hirschhausen & Claudia Kemfert, 2006. "A Strategic Model of European Gas Supply (GASMOD)," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 551, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  10. Schultz, Emma & Swieringa, John, 2013. "Price discovery in European natural gas markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 628-634.
  11. Rico Ihle & Linde Götz & Ofir D. Rubin, 2011. "State-Space Cointegration Modeling for the Analysis of Exogenous Shocks to Prices in Israeli-Palestinian Food Trade," Courant Research Centre: Poverty, Equity and Growth - Discussion Papers 100, Courant Research Centre PEG.
  12. Kuper, Gerard & Mulder, Machiel, 2013. "Cross-border infrastructure constraints, regulatory measures and economic integration of the Dutch - German gas market," Research Report 13001-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
  13. Böckers, Veit & Heimeshoff, Ulrich, 2012. "The extent of European power markets," DICE Discussion Papers 50, Heinrich‐Heine‐Universität Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
  14. Keyaerts, Nico & D'haeseleer, William, 2014. "Forum shopping for ex-post gas-balancing services," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 209-221.
  15. Nepal, R. & Jamasb, T., 2011. "Market Integration, Efficiency, and Interconnectors: The Irish Single Electricity Market," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1144, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  16. Mulder, M. & Kuper, G.H., 2013. "Cross-border constraints,institutional changes and integration of the Dutch – German gas market," Research Report 13004-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
  17. Lochner, Stefan & Dieckhoener, Caroline, 2008. "Analyse von Grenzkostenpreisen im Europaeischen Gasmarkt," EWI Working Papers 2008-5, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln.
  18. Marcus Stronzik & Margarethe Rammerstorfer & Anne Neumann, 2008. "Theory of Storage: An Empirical Assessment of the European Natural Gas Market," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 821, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  19. Koenig, P., 2012. "The effect of LNG on the rleationship between UK and Continental European natural gas markets," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1253, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

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