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Partially Overlapping Time Series: A New Model for Volatility Dynamics in Commodity Futures

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Author Info
Smith, Aaron

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Abstract

In commodity futures markets, contracts with various delivery dates trade simultaneously. Applied researchers typically discard the majority of the data and form a single time series by choosing only one price observation per day. This strategy precludes a full understanding of these markets and can induce complicated nonlinear dynamics in the data. In this paper, I introduce the partially overlapping time series (POTS) model to model jointly all traded contracts. The POTS model incorporates time-to-delivery, storability, seasonality, and GARCH effects. I apply the POTS model to corn futures at the Chicago Board of Trade and the results uncover substantial inefficiency associated with delivery on corn futures. The results also support two theories of commodity pricing: the theory of storage and the Samuelson effect.

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Paper provided by University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics in its series Working Papers with number 11978.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ags:ucdavw:11978

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Keywords: Marketing;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. " Business Cycles and the Behavior of Metals Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(5), pages 1075-93, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Williams, Jeffrey, 1987. "Futures Markets: A Consequences of Risk Aversion or Transactions Costs?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1000-1023, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Baillie, Richard T & Myers, Robert J, 1991. "Bivariate GARCH Estimation of the Optimal Commodity Futures Hedge," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(2), pages 109-24, April-Jun. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Diebold, Francis X & Nerlove, Marc, 1989. "The Dynamics of Exchange Rate Volatility: A Multivariate Latent Factor Arch Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(1), pages 1-21, Jan.-Mar.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Power, Gabriel J. & Turvey, Calum G., 2008. "On Term Structure Models of Commodity Futures Prices and the Kaldor-Working Hypothesis," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37608, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. [Downloadable!]
  2. Karali, Berna & Dorfman, Jeffrey H. & Thurman, Walter N., 2008. "Do Inventory and Time-to-Delivery Effects Vary Across Futures Contracts? Insights from a Smoothed Bayesian Estimator," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6084, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
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