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Likelihood-based estimation of latent generalised ARCH structures

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Author Info
Gabriele Fiorentini () (IPSC-JRC and University of Alicante, Italy)
Enrique Sentana () (CEMFI, Spain)
Neil Shephard () (Nuffield College, Oxford, UK)

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Abstract

GARCH models are commonly used as latent processes in econometrics, financial economics and macroeconomics. Yet no exact likelihood analysis of these models has been provided so far. In this paper we outline the issues and suggest a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm which allows the calculation of a classical estimator via the simulated EM algorithm or a Bayesian solution in O(T) computational operations, where T denotes the sample size. We assess the performance of our proposed algorithm in the context of both artificial examples and an empirical application to 26 UK sectorial stock returns, and compare it to existing approximate solutions.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford in its series Economics Papers with number 2002-W19.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: 12 Sep 2002
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Handle: RePEc:nuf:econwp:0219

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Web page: http://www.nuff.ox.ac.uk/economics/

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Related research
Keywords: Bayesian inference Dynamic Heteroskedasticity Factor models Markov chain Monte Carlo Simulated EM algorithm Volatility.

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  3. Siem Jan Koopman & Neil Shephard, 2002. "Testing the Assumptions Behind the Use of Importance Sampling," Economics Papers 2002-W17, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Abel Elizalde & Rafael Repullo, 2004. "Economic And Regulatory Capital. What Is The Difference?," Working Papers wp2004_0422, CEMFI. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Enrique Sentana & Giorgio Calzolari & Gabriele Fiorentini, 2004. "Indirect Estimation Of Conditionally Heteroskedastic Factor Models," Working Papers wp2004_0409, CEMFI. [Downloadable!]
  3. Michael Creel, 2008. "Estimation of Dynamic Latent Variable Models Using Simulated Nonparametric Moments," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 725.08, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC), revised 02 Jun 2008. [Downloadable!]
  4. M. Hashem Pesaran & Paolo Zaffaroni, 2008. "Optimal Asset Allocation with Factor Models for Large Portfolios," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Sébastien Laurent & Luc Bauwens & Jeroen V. K. Rombouts, 2006. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 79-109. [Downloadable!]
  6. M. Hashem Pesaran & Paolo Zaffaroni, 2004. "Model Averaging and Value-at-Risk based Evaluation of Large Multi Asset Volatility Models for Risk Management," IEPR Working Papers 04.3, Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Neil Shephard & Torben G. Andersen, 2008. "Stochastic Volatility: Origins and Overview," Economics Series Working Papers 389, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Neil Shephard, 2005. "Stochastic Volatility," Economics Papers 2005-W17, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
  9. Catherine Doz & Éric Renault, 2004. "Conditionally Heteroskedastic Factor Models: Identification and Instrumental Variables Estimation," CIRANO Working Papers 2004s-37, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
  10. Borus Jungbacker & Siem Jan Koopman, 2008. "Likelihood-based Analysis for Dynamic Factor Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-007/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  11. Catherine Doz & Eric Renault, 2004. "Conditionaly Heteroskedastic Factor Models : Identificationand Instrumental variables Estmation," THEMA Working Papers 2004-13, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise. [Downloadable!]
  12. Josep Pijoan-Mas, 2003. "Precautionary Savings Or Working Longer Hours?," Working Papers wp2003_0311, CEMFI. [Downloadable!]
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