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Estimation and Properties of a Time-Varying EGARCH(1,1) in Mean Model

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  • Sofia Anyfantaki
  • Antonis Demos

Abstract

Time-varying GARCH-M models are commonly employed in econometrics and financial economics. Yet the recursive nature of the conditional variance makes likelihood analysis of these models computationally infeasible. This article outlines the issues and suggests to employ a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm which allows the calculation of a classical estimator via the simulated EM algorithm or a simulated Bayesian solution in only O ( T ) computational operations, where T is the sample size. Furthermore, the theoretical dynamic properties of a time-varying-parameter EGARCH(1,1)-M are derived. We discuss them and apply the suggested Bayesian estimation to three major stock markets.

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  • Sofia Anyfantaki & Antonis Demos, 2016. "Estimation and Properties of a Time-Varying EGARCH(1,1) in Mean Model," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 293-310, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:emetrv:v:35:y:2016:i:2:p:293-310
    DOI: 10.1080/07474938.2014.966639
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    Cited by:

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    2. Sofia Anyfantaki & Antonis Demos, 2016. "Estimation and Properties of a Time-Varying EGARCH(1,1) in Mean Model," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 293-310, February.
    3. Díaz, Antonio & Esparcia, Carlos, 2021. "Dynamic optimal portfolio choice under time-varying risk aversion," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 1-22.
    4. Ruili Sun & Tiefeng Ma & Shuangzhe Liu & Milind Sathye, 2019. "Improved Covariance Matrix Estimation for Portfolio Risk Measurement: A Review," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-34, March.
    5. Dias, Gustavo Fruet, 2017. "The time-varying GARCH-in-mean model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 129-132.
    6. Mirza, Nawazish & Naqvi, Bushra & Rahat, Birjees & Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas, 2020. "Price reaction, volatility timing and funds’ performance during Covid-19," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    7. Antonis Demos, 2023. "Statistical Properties of Two Asymmetric Stochastic Volatility in Mean Models," DEOS Working Papers 2303, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    8. Armin Pourkhanali & Jonathan Keith & Xibin Zhang, 2021. "Conditional Heteroscedasticity Models with Time-Varying Parameters: Estimation and Asymptotics," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 15/21, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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