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Migration of Price Discovery With Constrained Futures Markets

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Abstract

This paper investigates the information content of futures option prices when the futures price is regulated while the futures option price itself is not. The New York Board of Trade provides the empirical setting for this type of dichotomy in regulation. Most commodity derivatives markets regulate prices of all derivatives on a particular commodity simultaneously. NYBOT has taken an almost unique position by imposing daily price limits on their futures contracts while leaving the options prices on these futures contracts unconstrained. The study takes a particular interest in the volatility and futures prices of the options-implied risk neutral density when the underlying futures contract is locked limit.

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File URL: http://www.business.uts.edu.au/qfrc/research/research_papers/rp70.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney in its series Research Paper Series with number 70.

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Date of creation: 01 Dec 2001
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Handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:70

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Related research

Keywords: option implied density; price limits;

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References

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  1. Joan Evans & James M. Mahoney, 1997. "The effects of price limits on trading volume: a study of the cotton futures market," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 3(Jan).
  2. Gael M. Martin & Catherine S. Forbes & Vance L. Martin, 2003. "Implicit Bayesian Inference Using Option Prices," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 5/03, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  3. Jackwerth, Jens Carsten & Rubinstein, Mark, 1996. " Recovering Probability Distributions from Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1611-32, December.
  4. Barone-Adesi, Giovanni & Whaley, Robert E, 1987. " Efficient Analytic Approximation of American Option Values," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 301-20, June.
  5. Ma, C.K. & Rao, R.P. & Sears, R.S., 1988. "Limit Moves And Price Resolution: The Case Of The Treasury Bond Futures Markets," Papers 177, Columbia - Center for Futures Markets.
  6. Jacquier, Eric & Jarrow, Robert, 2000. "Bayesian analysis of contingent claim model error," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 145-180.
  7. Joan Evans & James M. Mahoney, 1996. "The effects of daily price limits on cotton futures and options trading," Research Paper 9627, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  8. Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1994. " Circuit Breakers and Market Volatility: A Theoretical Perspective," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 237-54, March.
  9. Hall, Anthony D & Kofman, Paul, 2001. "Regulatory Tools and Price Changes in Futures Markets," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(4), pages 520-40, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana & Neil Shephard, 2002. "Likelihood-based estimation of latent generalised ARCH structures," Economics Papers 2002-W19, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.

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