Implicit Bayesian Inference Using Option Prices
AbstractA Bayesian approach to option pricing is presented, in which posterior inference about the underlying returns process is conducted implicitly via observed option prices. A range of models allowing for conditional leptokurtosis, skewness and time-varying volatility in returns are considered, with posterior parameter distributions and model probabilities backed out from the option prices. Models are ranked according to several criteria, including out-of-sample fit, predictive and hedging performance. The methodology accommodates heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation in the option pricing errors, as well as regime shifts across contract groups. The method is applied to intraday option price data on the S&P500 stock index for 1995. Whilst the results provide support for models which accommodate leptokurtosis, no one model dominates according to all criteria considered.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics in its series Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers with number 5/03.
Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2003
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: PO Box 11E, Monash University, Victoria 3800, Australia
Web page: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/depts/ebs/
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- Martin, G.M. & Forbes, C.S. & Martin, V.L., 2000. "Implicit Bayesian Inference Using Option Prices," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 5/00, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- C16 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Econometric and Statistical Methods; Specific Distributions
- G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2003-02-24 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2003-02-26 (Econometrics)
- NEP-FIN-2003-02-24 (Finance)
- NEP-FMK-2003-02-24 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-RMG-2003-02-24 (Risk Management)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Fernández, C. & Steel, M.F.J., 1996. "On Bayesian Modelling of Fat Tails and Skewness," Discussion Paper 1996-58, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Shu Wing Ho & Alan Lee & Alastair Marsden, 2011. "Use of Bayesian Estimates to determine the Volatility Parameter Input in the Black-Scholes and Binomial Option Pricing Models," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 4(1), pages 74-96, December.
- Anthony D. Hall & Paul Kofman & Steve Manaster, 2001. "Migration of Price Discovery With Constrained Futures Markets," Research Paper Series 70, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- V. L. Martin & G. M. Martin & G. C. Lim, 2005.
"Parametric pricing of higher order moments in S&P500 options,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 377-404.
- G.C. Lim & G.M. Martin & V.L. Martin, 2002. "Parametric Pricing of Higher Order Moments in S&P500 Options," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 1/02, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- C.S. Forbes & G.M. Martin & J. Wright, 2002. "Bayesian Estimation of a Stochastic Volatility Model Using Option and Spot Prices," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 2/02, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Lim, G.C. & Martin, G.M. & Martin, V.L., 2006. "Pricing currency options in the presence of time-varying volatility and non-normalities," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 291-314, July.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Simone Grose).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.