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Measuring Risk Aversion From Excess Returns on a Stock Index

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Author Info
Ray Chou
Robert F. Engle
Alex Kane

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Abstract

We distinguish the measure of risk aversion from the slope coefficient in the linear relationship between the mean excess return on a stock index and its variance. Even when risk aversion is constant, the latter can vary significantly with the relative share of stocks in the risky wealth portfolio, and with the beta of unobserved wealth on stocks. We introduce a statistical model with ARCH disturbances and a time-varying parameter in the mean (TVP ARCH-N). The model decomposes the predictable component in stock returns into two parts: the time-varying price of volatility and the time-varying volatility of returns. The relative share of stocks and the beta of the excluded components of wealth on stocks are instrumented by macroeconomic variables. The ratio of corporate profit over national income and the inflation rate ore found to be important forces in the dynamics of stock price volatility.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3643.

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Date of creation: Mar 1991
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3643

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  2. Bent Jesper Christensen & Christian M. Dahl & Emma M. Iglesias, 2008. "Semiparametric Inference in a GARCH-in-Mean Model," CREATES Research Papers 2008-46, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
  3. Kenneth D. West & Dongchul Cho, 1994. "The Predictive Ability of Several Models of Exchange Rate Volatility," NBER Technical Working Papers 0152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Elamin H. Elbasha, 2005. "Risk aversion and uncertainty in cost-effectiveness analysis: the expected-utility, moment-generating function approach," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 457-470. [Downloadable!]
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  6. John Y. Campbell, 1996. "Consumption and the Stock Market: Interpreting International Experience," NBER Working Papers 5610, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Robert Engle, 2004. "Risk and Volatility: Econometric Models and Financial Practice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(3), pages 405-420, June. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Young-Hye Cho & Robert F. Engle, 1999. "Time-Varying Betas and Asymmetric Effect of News: Empirical Analysis of Blue Chip Stocks," NBER Working Papers 7330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Lin Peng & Turan G. Bali, 2006. "Is there a risk-return trade-off? Evidence from high-frequency data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 1169-1198. [Downloadable!]
  11. Ken B. Cyree & Mark D. Griffiths & Drew B. Winters, 2003. "On the pervasive effects of Federal Reserve settlement regulations," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 27-46. [Downloadable!]
  12. Andrei Semenov, 2003. "High-Order Consumption Moments and Asset Pricing," Working Papers 2003_4, York University, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2005. [Downloadable!]
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