IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/agribz/v33y2017i3p358-377.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimating the cost of pre‐harvest forward contracting corn and soybeans in Illinois before and after 2007

Author

Listed:
  • Xiaoli L. Etienne
  • Mindy L. Mallory
  • Scott H. Irwin

Abstract

Forward contracting historically has been the principal risk management tool of crop farmers in the United States. We use pre‐harvest forward contract bids from 1977 to 2013 in Illinois to estimate the cost of forward contracting corn and soybeans. Prior to 2007, it cost 1.55% of the October spot price or 3.74 cents/bushel on average to forward contract corn at the end of February. In 2007–2013, a period of high price volatility, the average cost increased to 3.31% or 16.40 cents/bushel. In the soybean market, before 2007 the average cost was 0.77% or 6.26 cents/bushel and thereafter increased to 1.46% or 15.62 cents/bushel. Default risk does not appear to be a determinant of forward contracting cost. However, evidence suggests that the higher cash flow risk associated with volatile market prices is likely to be the main driving cause of increasing forward contracting costs observed after 2007. [EconLit citations: Q11, Q13].

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaoli L. Etienne & Mindy L. Mallory & Scott H. Irwin, 2017. "Estimating the cost of pre‐harvest forward contracting corn and soybeans in Illinois before and after 2007," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(3), pages 358-377, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:agribz:v:33:y:2017:i:3:p:358-377
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/agr.21500
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stevens, Stanley C., 1987. "New Marketing Issues Via Pik Certificates," Staff Papers 13689, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    2. Mindy L. Mallory & Wenjiao Zhao & Scott H. Irwin, 2015. "The Cost of Post‐Harvest Forward Contracting in Corn and Soybeans," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(1), pages 47-62, January.
    3. Ray D. Nelson, 1985. "Forward and Futures Contracts as Preharvest Commodity Marketing Instruments," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 67(1), pages 15-23.
    4. Davis, Todd D. & Patrick, George F. & Coble, Keith H. & Knight, Thomas O. & Baquet, Alan E., 2005. "Forward Pricing Behavior of Corn and Soybean Producers," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(1), pages 145-160, April.
    5. Taylor, Mykel & Tonsor, Glynn & Dhuyvetter, Kevin, 2014. "Structural Change in Forward Contracting Costs for Kansas Wheat," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 39(2), pages 1-13.
    6. Ani L. Katchova & Mario J. Miranda, 2004. "Two-Step Econometric Estimation of Farm Characteristics Affecting Marketing Contract Decisions," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(1), pages 88-102.
    7. Aaron Smith, 2005. "Partially overlapping time series: a new model for volatility dynamics in commodity futures," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 405-422.
    8. Barry K. Goodwin & Ted C. Schroeder, 1994. "Human Capital, Producer Education Programs, and the Adoption of Forward-Pricing Methods," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 76(4), pages 936-947.
    9. Pennings, Joost M.E. & Isengildina, Olga & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 2004. "The Impact of Market Advisory Service Recommendations on Producers' Marketing Decisions," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 29(2), pages 1-20, August.
    10. Philip Garcia & Scott H. Irwin & Aaron Smith, 2015. "Futures Market Failure?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 97(1), pages 40-64.
    11. Townsend, John P. & Brorsen, B. Wade, 2000. "Cost Of Forward Contracting Hard Red Winter Wheat," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 32(1), pages 1-6, April.
    12. Stringer, Chris & Sanders, Dwight, 2006. "Forward Contracting Costs for Illinois Corn and Soybeans: Implications for Producer Pricing Strategies," Journal of the ASFMRA, American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers, vol. 2006, pages 1-8.
    13. Parcell, Joseph L. & Schroeder, Ted C. & Dhuyvetter, Kevin C., 2000. "Factors Affecting Live Cattle Basis," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 32(3), pages 1-11, December.
    14. George F. Patrick & Wesley N. Musser & David T. Eckman, 1998. "Forward Marketing Practices and Attitudes of Large-Scale Midwestern Grain Producers," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 20(1), pages 38-53.
    15. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-652, Special I.
    16. Pennings, Joost M.E. & Isengildina, Olga & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 2004. "The Impact Of Marketing Advisory Service Recommendations On Producers' Marketing Decisions," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20389, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    17. Elam, Emmett W., 1992. "Cash Forward Contracting Versus Hedging Of Fed Cattle, And The Impact Of Cash Contracting On Cash Prices," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 17(1), pages 1-13, July.
    18. Unknown, 2005. "Forward," 2005 Conference: Slovenia in the EU - Challenges for Agriculture, Food Science and Rural Affairs, November 10-11, 2005, Moravske Toplice, Slovenia 183804, Slovenian Association of Agricultural Economists (DAES).
    19. Velandia, Margarita & Rejesus, Roderick M. & Knight, Thomas O. & Sherrick, Bruce J., 2009. "Factors Affecting Farmers' Utilization of Agricultural Risk Management Tools: The Case of Crop Insurance, Forward Contracting, and Spreading Sales," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(1), pages 107-123, April.
    20. B. Wade Brorsen & John Coombs & Kim Anderson, 1995. "The cost of forward contracting wheat," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 349-354.
    21. Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 2009. "Market Instability in a New Era of Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Prices," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 24(1), pages 1-6.
    22. Mark, Darrell R. & Brorsen, B. Wade & Anderson, Kim B. & Small, Rebecca M., 2008. "Price Risk Management Alternatives for Farmers in the Absence of Forward Contracts with Grain Merchants," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 23(2), pages 1-4.
    23. Ted C. Schroeder & Rodney Jones & James Mintert & Andrew P. Barkley, 1993. "The Impact of Forward Contracting on Fed Cattle Transaction Prices," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 15(2), pages 325-337.
    24. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nan, Qiuying & Sun, Mengchan & Nie, Jiajia & Yang, Rui & Wan, Lijuan, 2023. "The efficacy of a forward market for the agricultural sector in mitigating climate risk: A potential alternative to agricultural subsidies?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PB).
    2. Peter Slade, 2021. "The impact of price hedging on subsidized insurance: Evidence from Canada," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 69(4), pages 447-464, December.
    3. Panos Kouvelis & Guang Xiao & Nan Yang, 2021. "Role of Risk Aversion in Price Postponement Under Supply Random Yield," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(8), pages 4826-4844, August.
    4. Hungerford, Ashley & Rosch, Stephanie, 2016. "The Effect of Crop Insurance Premium Subsidies on Soybean Producers' Risk Management Portfolios," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235341, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Shi, Ruoding & Isengildina Massa, Olga, 2022. "Costs of Futures Hedging in Corn and Soybean Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 47(2), May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jacobs, Keri & Li, Ziran & Hayes, Dermot, 2016. "Price Responses in Forward Contracting: Do We Limit The Upside And Expose The Downside?," ISU General Staff Papers 201601010800001017, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    2. Good, Darrel L. & Irwin, Scott H. & Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes & Hagedorn, Lewis A., 2005. "The Pricing Performance of Market Advisory Services in Corn and Soybeans over 1995-2003," AgMAS Project Research Reports 14775, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
    3. Bradley Isbell & Andrew M. McKenzie & B. Wade Brorsen, 2020. "The cost of forward contracting in the Mississippi barge freight river market," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(2), pages 226-241, April.
    4. Shi, Wei & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L. & Hagedorn, Lewis A., 2004. "The Cost Of Forward Contracting," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20409, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    5. Jordaan, Henry & Grove, Bennie, 2007. "Factors Affecting Maize Producers Adoption of Forward Pricing in Price Risk Management: The Case of Vaalharts," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 46(4), pages 1-18, December.
    6. Mallory, Mindy L. & Zhao, Wenjiao & Irwin, Scott H., 2012. "Farmer’s Income Shifting Option in Post-harvest Forward Contracting," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124692, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Jordaan, Henry & Grove, Bennie, 2008. "Factors affecting the use of forward pricing methods in price risk management with special reference to the influence of risk aversion," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 47(1), pages 1-14, March.
    8. Mofokeng, Maine & Vink, Nick, 2013. "Factors Affecting the Hedging Decision of Maize Farmers in Gauteng Province," 2013 Fourth International Conference, September 22-25, 2013, Hammamet, Tunisia 161465, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).
    9. Carrer, Marcelo José & Silveira, Rodrigo Lanna F. & Meirelles De Souza Filho, Hildo, 2017. "Citrus Producers' Choice of Price Risk Management Tools," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258352, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Caroline Roussy & Aude Ridier & Karim Chaib & Marie Boyet, 2018. "Marketing contracts and risk management for cereal producers," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(3), pages 616-630, June.
    11. Loughrey, J. & Thorne, F. & Kinsella, A. & Hennessy, T. & O'Donoghue, C. & Vollenweider, X., 2015. "Market risk management and the demand for forward contracts among Irish dairy farmers," International Journal of Agricultural Management, Institute of Agricultural Management, vol. 4(4), July.
    12. Mitchell, Paul D. & Rejesus, Roderick M. & Coble, Keith H. & Knight, Thomas O., 2010. "A Real Options Framework for Analyzing Program Participation as Human Capital Investments: The Case of the Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) Program," Staff Paper Series 547, University of Wisconsin, Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    13. Taylor, Mykel & Tonsor, Glynn & Dhuyvetter, Kevin, 2014. "Structural Change in Forward Contracting Costs for Kansas Wheat," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 39(2), pages 1-13.
    14. Aymeric Ricome & Arnaud Reynaud, 2022. "Marketing contract choices in agriculture: The role of price expectation and price risk management," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(1), pages 170-186, January.
    15. Taylor, Mykel R. & Dhuyvetter, Kevin C. & Kastens, Terry L., 2006. "Forecasting Crop Basis Using Historical Averages Supplemented with Current Market Information," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 31(3), pages 1-19, December.
    16. Pennings, Joost M.E. & Isengildina, Olga & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L. & Garcia, Philip & Frank, Julieta & Kuiper, W. Erno, 2005. "Complex Choices: Producers Risk Management Strategies," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19550, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    17. Schulze, Birgit, 2011. "Dynamic Markets – Dynamic Relationships: The Example of Grain Marketing in Germany," 2011 International European Forum, February 14-18, 2011, Innsbruck-Igls, Austria 122001, International European Forum on System Dynamics and Innovation in Food Networks.
    18. Bignebat, C., 2018. "Learning process in marketing contract choice: the case of cereals in the Paris Basin," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277233, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    19. Schroeder, Ted C. & Parcell, Joseph L. & Kastens, Terry L. & Dhuyvetter, Kevin C., 1998. "Perceptions Of Marketing Strategies: Producers Versus Extension Economists," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 23(1), pages 1-15, July.
    20. Stringer, Chris & Sanders, Dwight, 2006. "Forward Contracting Costs for Illinois Corn and Soybeans: Implications for Producer Pricing Strategies," Journal of the ASFMRA, American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers, vol. 2006, pages 1-8.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:agribz:v:33:y:2017:i:3:p:358-377. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1002/(ISSN)1520-6297 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.