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Forecasting Crop Basis Using Historical Averages Supplemented with Current Market Information

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  • Taylor, Mykel R.
  • Dhuyvetter, Kevin C.
  • Kastens, Terry L.

Abstract

This research compares practical methods of forecasting basis, using current market information for wheat, soybeans, corn, and milo (grain sorghum) in Kansas. Though generally not statistically superior, an historical one-year average was optimal for corn, milo, and soybean harvest and post-harvest basis forecasts. A one-year average was also best for wheat post-harvest basis forecasts, whereas a five-year average was the best method for forecasting wheat harvest basis. Incorporating current market information, defined as basis deviation from historical average, improved the accuracy of post-harvest basis forecasts. A naive forecast incorporating current information was often the most accurate for post-harvest basis forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Taylor, Mykel R. & Dhuyvetter, Kevin C. & Kastens, Terry L., 2006. "Forecasting Crop Basis Using Historical Averages Supplemented with Current Market Information," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 31(3), pages 1-19, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:8625
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.8625
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Minnix, Luke A. & Yeager, Elizabeth A., 2019. "Kansas Wheat Basis Expectations During Periods of Nonconvergence," Journal of the ASFMRA, American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers, vol. 2019.
    3. Kan, Iddo & Reznik, Ami & Kaminski, Jonathan & Kimhi, Ayal, 2023. "The impacts of climate change on cropland allocation, crop production, output prices and social welfare in Israel: A structural econometric framework," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    4. Tonsor, Glynn T., 2008. "Hedging in Presence of Market Access Risk," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37621, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    5. Bekkerman, Anton & Brester, Gary W. & Taylor, Mykel, 2016. "Forecasting a Moving Target: The Roles of Quality and Timing for Determining Northern U.S. Wheat Basis," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 41(1), pages 1-17, January.
    6. Steven M. Ramsey & Jason S. Bergtold & Jessica L. Heier Stamm, 2021. "Field‐Level Land‐Use Adaptation to Local Weather Trends," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(4), pages 1314-1341, August.
    7. Onel, Gulcan & Karali, Berna, 2014. "Relative Performance of Semi-Parametric Nonlinear Models in Forecasting Basis," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 169795, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Taylor, Mykel & Tonsor, Glynn & Dhuyvetter, Kevin, 2014. "Structural Change in Forward Contracting Costs for Kansas Wheat," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 39(2), pages 1-13.
    9. Karali, Berna & McNew, Kevin & Thurman, Walter N., 2018. "Price Discovery and the Basis Effects of Failures to Converge in Soft RedWinter Wheat Futures Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 43(1), January.
    10. Welch, J. Mark & Mkrtchyan, Vardan & Power, Gabriel J., 2009. "Predicting the Corn Basis in the Texas Triangle Area," Journal of Agribusiness, Agricultural Economics Association of Georgia, vol. 27(1-2), pages 1-15.
    11. Sanusi, Olajide I. & Safi, Samir K. & Adeeko, Omotara & Tabash, Mosab I., 2022. "Forecasting agricultural commodity price using different models: a case study of widely consumed grains in Nigeria," Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, vol. 8(2), June.
    12. Bekkerman, Anton & Pelletier, Denis, 2009. "Basis Volatilities of Corn and Soybean in Spatially Separated Markets: The Effect of Ethanol Demand," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49281, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Tokovenko, Oleksiy & Gunter, Lewell F., 2008. "Quarterly Storage Model of U.S. Cotton Market: Estimation of the Basis under Rational Expectations," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6435, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

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