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Predicting the Corn Basis in the Texas Triangle Area

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Author Info

  • Welch, J. Mark
  • Mkrtchyan, Vardan
  • Power, Gabriel J.

Abstract

Shifting patterns of corn use as a result of the ethanol boom may be causing basis levels to change across the United States, creating the need for methods to predict basis levels in dynamic conditions. This study develops a new and straightforward economic model of basis forecasting that outperforms the simple three-year average method suggested in much of the literature. We use monthly data of the corn basis in the Texas Triangle Area from February 1997 to July 2008. The results show the new model based on economic fundamentals performs better than basis estimates using a three-year moving average.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/90657
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Agricultural Economics Association of Georgia in its journal Journal of Agribusiness.

Volume (Year): 27 (2009)
Issue (Month): ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:ags:jloagb:90657

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 301 Conner Hall, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602-7509
Web page: http://www.agecon.uga.edu/~jab/
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Related research

Keywords: basis; corn; grain marketing; Texas Triangle Area; Agribusiness; Marketing;

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References

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  1. Outlaw, Joe L. & Anderson, David P. & Klose, Steven L. & Richardson, James W. & Herbst, Brian K. & Waller, Mark L. & Raulston, J. Marc & Sneary, Shannon L. & Gill, Robert Chope, II, 2003. "An Economic Examination of Potential Ethanol Production in Texas," Working Papers 42707, Texas A&M University, Agricultural and Food Policy Center.
  2. Tomek, William G. & Peterson, Hikaru Hanawa, 2000. "Risk Management in Agricultural Markets: A Survey," Staff Papers 121140, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
  3. Taylor, Mykel R. & Dhuyvetter, Kevin C. & Kastens, Terry L., 2006. "Forecasting Crop Basis Using Historical Averages Supplemented with Current Market Information," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 31(03), December.
  4. Seamon, V. Frederick & Kahl, Kandice H. & Curtis, Charles E., Jr., 1997. "A Regional Comparison Of U.S. Cotton Basis Patterns," Working Papers 18806, Clemson University, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
  5. Parcell, Joseph L. & Schroeder, Ted C. & Dhuyvetter, Kevin C., 2000. "Factors Affecting Live Cattle Basis," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 32(03), December.
  6. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2006. "Forecasting Basis Levels in the Soybean Complex: A Comparison of Time Series Methods," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 38(03), December.
  7. Hayenga, Marvin L. & Jiang, Bingrong, 1997. "Corn and Soybean Basis Behavior and Forecasting: Fundamental and Alternative Approaches," Staff General Research Papers 10400, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
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