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Evaluating The Use Of Futures Prices To Forecast The Farm Level U.S. Corn Price

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Author Info
Hoffman, Linwood A.
Beachler, Michael
Abstract

A model is developed using bases, marketing weights, and a composite of monthly futures and cash prices to forecast a season-average U.S. farm price for corn. Forecast accuracy measures include the mean absolute percentage error and Theil's U-statistic. Futures forecasts are compared with a naïve forecast and WASDE projections. Futures price forecasts are timely and reliable.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association) in its series 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL with number 20612.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea01:20612

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Keywords: Marketing;

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Peck, Anne E, 1976. "Futures Markets, Supply Response, and Price Stability," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 90(3), pages 407-23, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Danthine, Jean-Pierre, 1978. "Information, futures prices, and stabilizing speculation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 79-98, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2009-12-11.

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