Predicting the Corn Basis in the Texas Triangle Area

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Predicting the Corn Basis in the Texas Triangle Area

Author Info

Mkrtchyan, Vardan
Welch, J. Mark
Power, Gabriel J.

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Gabriel Power

Abstract

This study develops a new and straightforward economic model of basis forecasting that outperforms the simple three-year average method suggested in much of the literature. We use monthly data of the corn basis in the Texas Triangle Area from February 1997 to July 2008. The results and the graphs indicate that the new model based on economic fundamentals performs better than basis estimates using a three-year moving average.

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Paper provided by Southern Agricultural Economics Association in its series 2009 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2009, Atlanta, Georgia with number 46759.

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Date of creation: 15 Jan 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ags:saeana:46759

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2009-02-07 (All new papers)
NEP-FOR-2009-02-07 (Forecasting)

References listed on IDEAS
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Seamon, V. Fred & Kahl, Kandice H. & Curtis, Charles E., 1997. "A Regional Comparison Of U.S. Cotton Basis Patterns," Working Papers 18806, Clemson University, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics. [Downloadable!]
Parcell, Joe L. & Schroeder, Ted C. & Dhuyvetter, Kevin C., 2000. "Factors Affecting Live Cattle Basis," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 32(03), December. [Downloadable!]
Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2006. "Forecasting Basis Levels in the Soybean Complex: A Comparison of Time Series Methods," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 38(03), December. [Downloadable!]
Taylor, Mykel R. & Dhuyvetter, Kevin C. & Kastens, Terry L., 2006. "Forecasting Crop Basis Using Historical Averages Supplemented with Current Market Information," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 31(03), December. [Downloadable!]
Outlaw, Joe L. & Anderson, David P. & Klose, Steven L. & Richardson, James W. & Herbst, Brian K. & Waller, Mark L. & Raulston, J. Marc & Sneary, Shannon L. & Gill, Robert C., 2003. "An Economic Examination of Potential Ethanol Production in Texas," Working Papers 42707, Texas A&M University, Agricultural and Food Policy Center. [Downloadable!]

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