This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Quarterly Storage Model of U.S. Cotton Market: Estimation of the Basis under Rational Expectations

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
TOKOVENKO, Oleksiy
Gunter, Lewell F.
Abstract

The paper outlines an approach to estimation and analysis of the futures basis in the U.S. cotton market under weakly rational expectations. Given the model specification derived from the underlying dynamic profit optimization problem of the dealers, the intermediary market model is estimated using the self-organizing state-space (SOSS) approach. Estimation results are used to evaluate the prediction power of the method and test the main assumptions about the existence and consistency of the subjective rational expectations incorporated in the model.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6435
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association) in its series 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida with number 6435.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea08:6435

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 555 East Wells Street, Suite 1100, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 53202
Phone: (414) 918-3190
Fax: (414) 276-3349
Email:
Web page: http://www.aaea.org
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (AgEcon Search).

Related research
Keywords: Crop Production/Industries;

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Tanizaki, Hisashi & Mariano, Roberto S., 1998. "Nonlinear and non-Gaussian state-space modeling with Monte Carlo simulations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 263-290. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Hikaru Hanawa Peterson & William G. Tomek, 2005. "How much of commodity price behavior can a rational expectations storage model explain?," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 33(3), pages 289-303, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Chow, G.C., 1991. "Dynamic Optimization Without Dynamic Programming," Papers 361, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  4. Miranda, Mario J & Glauber, Joseph W, 1993. "Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models of Primary Commodity Markets with Private and Government Stockholding," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(3), pages 463-70, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Taylor, Mykel R. & Dhuyvetter, Kevin C. & Kastens, Terry L., 2006. "Forecasting Crop Basis Using Historical Averages Supplemented with Current Market Information," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 31(03), December. [Downloadable!]
  6. Lai, Jing-Yi & Myers, Robert J. & Hanson, Steven D., 2003. "Optimal On-Farm Grain Storage by Risk-Averse Farmers," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 28(03), December. [Downloadable!]
  7. Chow, Gregory C., 1992. "Dynamic optimization without dynamic programming," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 3-9, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? You too can volunteer for RePEc, for example by encouraging others to register as authors.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-26.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.