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A closer look into the global determinants of oil price volatility

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  • Chatziantoniou, Ioannis
  • Filippidis, Michail
  • Filis, George
  • Gabauer, David

Abstract

In this paper we investigate global determinants of oil price volatility by employing a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model. We focus on realised volatility and consider the impact from a set of potential determinants including oil supply, oil demand, oil inventory, financial market uncertainty, financial interbank stress, as well as, financial trends in different currencies. We investigate the impact of these factors on realised volatility utilising monthly data over the period 1990:1–2019:5. Findings show that all factors can be conducive to higher levels of realised oil price volatility particularly in the short run. What can further be noticed, is that the magnitude of the corresponding impulse response functions may differ across time and this could largely be attributed to specific intervals of financial crises and economic recessions. Nevertheless, we show that shocks originating to the financial markets tend to be more important for oil price volatility. Our findings are closely linked to the implications regarding the financialisation of the oil market.

Suggested Citation

  • Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filippidis, Michail & Filis, George & Gabauer, David, 2021. "A closer look into the global determinants of oil price volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:95:y:2021:i:c:s0140988320304321
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2020.105092
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial indicators; Oil-market specific fundamental factors; Oil price volatility; TVP-VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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