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Evaluating a Year of Oil Price Volatility

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Abstract

Troy Davig, Nida ak?r Melek, Jun Nie, Lee Smith, and Didem Tzemen find changes in expectations of future oil supply relative to demand are the main drivers of the recent oil price decline.

Suggested Citation

  • Nida Çakır Melek & Troy Davig & Jun Nie & Andrew Lee Smith & Didem Tuzemen, 2015. "Evaluating a Year of Oil Price Volatility," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 5-30.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedker:00031
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eyal Dvir & Ken Rogoff, 2009. "The Three Epochs of Oil," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 706, Boston College Department of Economics.
    2. Bassam Fattouh, Lutz Kilian, and Lavan Mahadeva, 2013. "The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets: What Have We Learned So Far?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    3. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2016. "Understanding the Decline in the Price of Oil since June 2014," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(1), pages 131-158.
    4. Akram, Q. Farooq, 2009. "Commodity prices, interest rates and the dollar," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 838-851, November.
    5. Samya Beidas-Strom & Mr. Andrea Pescatori, 2014. "Oil Price Volatility and the Role of Speculation," IMF Working Papers 2014/218, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    7. Ratti, Ronald A & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2012. "Why are crude oil prices high when global activity is weak?," MPRA Paper 43777, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. John Elder & Apostolos Serletis, 2010. "Oil Price Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(6), pages 1137-1159, September.
    9. Kesicki, Fabian, 2010. "The third oil price surge - What's different this time?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1596-1606, March.
    10. Unknown, 2005. "Forward," 2005 Conference: Slovenia in the EU - Challenges for Agriculture, Food Science and Rural Affairs, November 10-11, 2005, Moravske Toplice, Slovenia 183804, Slovenian Association of Agricultural Economists (DAES).
    11. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2013. "Why are crude oil prices high when global activity is weak?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 133-136.
    12. Alejandro Badel & Joseph McGillicuddy, 2015. "Oil Prices: Is Supply or Demand Behind the Slump?," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue 8.
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    Cited by:

    1. Raphael Raduzzi & Antonio Ribba, 2020. "The macroeconomics outcome of oil shocks in the small Eurozone economies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 191-211, January.
    2. B., Anand & Paul, Sunil, 2021. "Oil shocks and stock market: Revisiting the dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    3. Umar, Zaghum & Trabelsi, Nader & Zaremba, Adam, 2021. "Oil shocks and equity markets: The case of GCC and BRICS economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    4. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filippidis, Michail & Filis, George & Gabauer, David, 2021. "A closer look into the global determinants of oil price volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    5. De, Kuhelika & Compton, Ryan A. & Giedeman, Daniel C., 2022. "Oil shocks and the U.S. economy in a data-rich model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    6. Maitra, Debasish & Guhathakurta, Kousik & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2021. "The good, the bad and the ugly relation between oil and commodities: An analysis of asymmetric volatility connectedness and portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    7. Maghyereh, Aktham & Abdoh, Hussein, 2021. "The impact of extreme structural oil-price shocks on clean energy and oil stocks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil prices; Oil; Oil supply; Energy; Prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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