Commodity and Equity Markets: Some Stylized Facts from a Copula Approach
AbstractIn this paper, we propose to identify the dependence structure existing between the returns of equity and commodity futures and its evolution through the past 20 years. The key point is that we do not do not impose the dependence structure but let the data select it. To do so, we model the dependence between commodity (metal, agriculture and energy) and stock markets using a flexible approach that allows us to investigate whether the co-movement is : (i) symmetric and occurring most of the time, (ii) symmetric and occurring mostly during extreme events and (iii) asymmetric and occurring mostly during extreme events. We also allow for this dependence to be time-varying from January 1990 to February 2012. Our analysis uncovers three major stylized facts. First, we find that the dependence between commodity and stock markets is time varying, symmetric and occurs most of the time (as opposed to mostly in extreme events). Second, not allowing for time-varying parameters in the dependence distribution generates a bias toward evidence of tail dependence. Similarly, considering only tail dependence may lead to wrong evidence of asymmetry. Third, a growing comovement between industrial metals and equity markets is identified as early as in 2003, a comovement that spreads to all commodity classes and becomes unambiguously stronger with the global financial crisis after Fall 2008.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 39860.
Date of creation: Jul 2012
Date of revision:
copula; commodity market; time varying; tail-dependence; comovement; equity market;
Other versions of this item:
- Delatte, Anne-Laure & Lopez, Claude, 2013. "Commodity and equity markets: Some stylized facts from a copula approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5346-5356.
- Delatte, Anne-Laure & Lopez, Claude, 2013. "Commodity and Equity Markets: Some Stylized Facts from a Copula Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 9558, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Delatte, A-L. & Lopez, C., 2013. "Commodity and Equity Markets: Some Stylized Facts from a Copula," Working papers 421, Banque de France.
- F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
- C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
- Q0 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General
- G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bicchetti, David & Maystre, Nicolas, 2012.
"The synchronized and long-lasting structural change on commodity markets: evidence from high frequency data,"
37486, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- David Bicchetti & Nicolas Maystre, 2012. "The Synchronized And Long-Lasting Structural Change On Commodity Markets: Evidence From High Frequency Data," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 208, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
- Y. Malevergne & D. Sornette, 2001.
"Testing the Gaussian Copula Hypothesis for Financial Assets Dependences,"
- Y. Malevergne & D. Sornette, 2003. "Testing the Gaussian copula hypothesis for financial assets dependences," Quantitative Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 231-250.
- Y. Malevergne & D. Sornette, 2001. "Testing the Gaussian Copula Hypothesis for Financial Assets Dependences," Finance 0111003, EconWPA.
- Yannick Malevergne & Didier Sornette, 2003. "Testing the Gaussian copula hypothesis for financial assets dependences," Post-Print hal-00520539, HAL.
- Kole, Erik & Koedijk, Kees & Verbeek, Marno, 2007.
"Selecting copulas for risk management,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2405-2423, August.
- Desmoulins-Lebeault, François & Kharoubi-Rakotomalala, Cécile, 2012. "Non-Gaussian diversification: When size matters," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 1987-1996.
- Chollete, Lorán & de la Peña, Victor & Lu, Ching-Chih, 2011. "International diversification: A copula approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 403-417, February.
- Annastiina Silvennoinen & Susan Thorp, 2010. "Financialization, Crisis and Commodity Correlation Dynamics," Research Paper Series 267, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Thierry Ane & Cecile Kharoubi, 2003. "Dependence Structure and Risk Measure," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76(3), pages 411-438, July.
- François Longin, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, 04.
- Daskalaki, Charoula & Skiadopoulos, George, 2011. "Should investors include commodities in their portfolios after all? New evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2606-2626, October.
- Ling Hu, 2006. "Dependence patterns across financial markets: a mixed copula approach," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 16(10), pages 717-729.
- Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-50, July.
- Ke Tang & Wei Xiong, 2010. "Index Investment and Financialization of Commodities," NBER Working Papers 16385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ning, Cathy, 2010. "Dependence structure between the equity market and the foreign exchange market-A copula approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 743-759, September.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.