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Threshold Effects In Multivariate Error Correction Models

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Author Info
Gonzalo, J.
Pitarakis, J.

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Abstract

In this paper we propose a testing procedure for assessing the presence of threshold effects in nonstationary Vector autoregressive models with or without cointegration. Our approach involves first testing whether the long run impact matrix characterising the VECM type representation of the VAR switches according to the magnitude of some threshold variable and is valid regardless of whether the system is purely I(1), I(1) with cointegration or stationary. Once the potential presence of threshold effects is established we subsequently evaluate the cointegrating properties of the system in each regime through a model selection based approach whose asymptotic and finite sample properties are also established. This subsequently allows us to introduce a novel non-linear permanent and transitory decomposition of the vector process of interest.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton in its series Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics with number 0501.

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Date of creation: 04 Jan 2005
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Handle: RePEc:stn:sotoec:0501

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  3. Dennis Kristensen & Anders Rahbek, 2007. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Nonlinear Error-Correction Models," CREATES Research Papers 2007-38, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
  4. Jaya Krishnakumar & David Neto, 2005. "Partial Cointegration," Cahiers du Département d'Econométrie 2005.04, Département d'Econométrie, Université de Genève, revised Aug 2006. [Downloadable!]
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