Time-Varying Spot and Futures Oil Price Dynamics
AbstractWe investigate the role of crude oil spot and futures prices in the process of price discovery by using a cost-of-carry model with an endogenous convenience yield and daily data over the period from January 1990 to December 2008. We provide evidence that futures markets play a more important role than spot markets in the case of contracts with shorter maturities, but the relative contribution of the two types of market turns out to be highly unstable, especially for the most deferred contracts. The implications of these results for hedging and forecasting crude oil spot prices are also discussed.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 3015.
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
cointegration; oil market; futures prices; price discovery;
Other versions of this item:
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Davide Ciferri & Allessandro Girardi, 2010. "Time-Varying Spot and Futures Oil Price Dynamics," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 988, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Guglielmo Caporale & Davide Ciferri & Alessandro Girardi, 2010. "Time-varying spot and futures oil price dynamics," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 75/2010, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia, Finanza e Statistica.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
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