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Price discovery in agricultural commodity markets in the presence of futures speculation

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  • Dimpfl, Thomas
  • Flad, Michael
  • Jung, Robert C.

Abstract

We study the relationship between spot and futures prices of corn, wheat, soybeans, soybean meal and oil, feeder and live cattle, as well as lean hogs to test which markets lead price discovery in these commodities. Using a recently developed unique information share we find evidence that the prices of these commodities are almost uniquely formed in the spot market. The market for futures contracts contributes less than 10% to price discovery (in the Hasbrouck sense). We interpret these results as evidence against adverse effects of futures speculation on commodity prices in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Dimpfl, Thomas & Flad, Michael & Jung, Robert C., 2017. "Price discovery in agricultural commodity markets in the presence of futures speculation," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 50-62.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jocoma:v:5:y:2017:i:c:p:50-62
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jcomm.2017.01.002
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agricultural commodities; Price discovery; Unique information shares; Futures speculation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • Q14 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Finance

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