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Speculation and volatility spillover in the crude oil and agricultural commodity markets: A Bayesian analysis

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  • Du, Xiaodong
  • Yu, Cindy L.
  • Hayes, Dermot J.

Abstract

This paper assesses factors that potentially influence the volatility of crude oil prices and the possible linkage between this volatility and agricultural commodity markets. Stochastic volatility models are applied to weekly crude oil, corn, and wheat futures prices from November 1998 to January 2009. Model parameters are estimated using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Speculation, scalping, and petroleum inventories are found to be important in explaining the volatility of crude oil prices. Several properties of crude oil price dynamics are established, including mean-reversion, an asymmetry between returns and volatility, volatility clustering, and infrequent compound jumps. We find evidence of volatility spillover among crude oil, corn, and wheat markets after the fall of 2006. This can be largely explained by tightened interdependence between crude oil and these commodity markets induced by ethanol production.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.

Volume (Year): 33 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
Pages: 497-503

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Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:33:y:2011:i:3:p:497-503

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco

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Keywords: Ethanol Gibbs sampler Petroleum inventory Stochastic volatility;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Matteo Manera & Marcella Nicolini & Ilaria Vignati, 2012. "Returns in Commodities Futures Markets and Financial Speculation: A Multivariate GARCH Approach," Working Papers 2012.23, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  2. Onour, Ibrahim & Sergi, Bruno, 2011. "Global food and energy markets: volatility transmission and impulse response effects," MPRA Paper 34079, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Janda, Karel & Kristoufek, Ladislav & Zilberman, David, 2011. "Biofuels: Review of Policies and Impacts," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt5v1112qr, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
  4. Du, Xiaodong, 2012. "Inside the Black Box: the Price Linkage and Transmission between Energy and Agricultural Markets," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 125146, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  5. Busse, Stefan & Brummer, Bernhard & Ihle, Rico, 2010. "Investigating Rapeseed Price Volatilities In The Course Of The Food Crisis," 50st Annual Conference, Braunschweig, Germany, September 29-October 1, 2010 93957, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
  6. Pozo, Veronica F. & Schroeder, Ted C., 2012. "Price and Volatility Spillover between Livestock and Related Commodity Markets," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124798, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  7. Kristoufek, Ladislav & Janda, Karel & Zilberman, David, 2012. "Relationship Between Prices of Food, Fuel and Biofuel," 131st Seminar, September 18-19, 2012, Prague, Czech Republic 135793, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  8. Karel Janda & Ladislav Kristoufek & David Zilberman, 2011. "Modeling the Environmental and Socio-Economic Impacts of Biofuels," Working Papers IES 2011/33, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Oct 2011.
  9. Serra, Teresa, 2012. "Biofuel-related price volatility literature: a review and new approaches," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126057, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  10. Xiarchos, Irene M. & Burnett, J. Wesley & Kucher, Oleg, 2012. "Energy and Speculation: New Dynamics in Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124788, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  11. Anna Creti & Marc Joëts & Valérie Mignon, 2012. "On the links between stock and commodity markets' volatility," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-42, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  12. Trujillo-Barrera, Andres & Mallory, Mindy L. & Garcia, Philip, 2012. "Volatility Spillovers in U.S. Crude Oil, Ethanol, and Corn Futures Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 37(2), August.
  13. Ladislav Kristoufek & Karel Janda & David Zilberman, 2012. "Mutual Responsiveness of Biofuels, Fuels and Food Prices," CAMA Working Papers 2012-38, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  14. Ladislav Kristoufek & Karel Janda & David Zilberman, 2013. "Regime-dependent topological properties of biofuels networks," The European Physical Journal B - Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer, vol. 86(2), pages 1-12, February.
  15. Varadi, Vijay Kumar, 2012. "An evidence of speculation in Indian commodity markets," MPRA Paper 38337, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  16. Tetsuji Tanaka & Nobuhiro Hosoe, 2011. "What Drove the Crop Price Hikes in the Food Crisis?," GRIPS Discussion Papers 11-16, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.

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