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Why do oil prices jump (or fall)?

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  • Wirl, Franz

Abstract

This paper discusses theories that can explain the zig-zags of oil prices in general and in particular the recent jump. More precisely, the following explanations are discussed: Homo oeconomicus (pure profit maximization if demand is dynamic and convex), price reaction function (price increases and respectively declines depend on capacity utilization), cartelization contingent on output or revenues of which the latter can lead to backward bending supply segments and multiple equilibria, statistical descriptions (mean reversion), homo politicus, i.e., arguments for price hikes that are rational (Public Choice) despite the (long-run) economic loss. Finally two approaches are presented that emphasize demand uncertainty: one extending the above-mentioned dynamic demand framework and the other considers a dynamic game of non-competitive suppliers with lumpy investments. Summing up, a demand shock seems to be the most suitable explanation of today's high prices (indeed a shock given that International Energy Agency (IEA) and Department of Energy (DoE) were promising just a couple of years ago that we are going to have lots of oil at low prices), while others and in particular politics have surprisingly little or no explanatory power.

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  • Wirl, Franz, 2008. "Why do oil prices jump (or fall)?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1029-1043, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:36:y:2008:i:3:p:1029-1043
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    5. Jean-Thomas Bernard, Lynda Khalaf, Maral Kichian, and Sebastien McMahon, 2015. "The Convenience Yield and the Informational Content of the Oil Futures Price," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    6. Yves Jégourel, 2015. "Dynamique de l’offre pétrolière, stratégies d’investissement et comportements de stockage : Un état des lieux [ Oil supply dynamics, investment strategy and storage behavior: the current situation ]," Research papers & Policy papers 1514, Policy Center for the New South.
    7. Liu, Feng & Zhang, Chuanguo & Tang, Mengying, 2021. "The impacts of oil price shocks and jumps on China's nonferrous metal markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    8. Bülent Temel, "undated". "From Value to Power: The Rise of Oil as a Political Economic Commodity," Working Papers 2012/52, Turkish Economic Association.
    9. He, Yanan & Wang, Shouyang & Lai, Kin Keung, 2010. "Global economic activity and crude oil prices: A cointegration analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 868-876, July.
    10. Gronwald, Marc, 2012. "A characterization of oil price behavior — Evidence from jump models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1310-1317.
    11. Draeger, Rebecca & Cunha, Bruno S.L. & Müller-Casseres, Eduardo & Rochedo, Pedro R.R. & Szklo, Alexandre & Schaeffer, Roberto, 2022. "Stranded crude oil resources and just transition: Why do crude oil quality, climate ambitions and land-use emissions matter," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    12. Vatter, Marc H., 2017. "OPEC's kinked demand curve," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 272-287.
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    14. Julien-Joern Mueller & Liam Wagner, 2013. "The Devil’s Tears from the Tournament of Shadows: Oil Supply, Markets and Unstable Producers," Energy Economics and Management Group Working Papers 5-2013, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    15. Brandt, Adam R. & Plevin, Richard J. & Farrell, Alexander E., 2010. "Dynamics of the oil transition: Modeling capacity, depletion, and emissions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 2852-2860.
    16. Kisswani, Khalid/ M., 2011. "The effects of the U.S. price control policies on OPEC: lessons from the past," MPRA Paper 34624, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Somayeh Azami & Shahram Fattahi & Mehdi Rezaei, 2017. "Historical and Variance Decomposition for Oil Price, Oil Consumption, OPEC and Non-OPEC Oil Production," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 21(3), pages 519-541, Summer.
    18. van Ruijven, Bas & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2009. "Oil and natural gas prices and greenhouse gas emission mitigation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4797-4808, November.

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