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Dynamic impacts of a shock in crude oil price on agricultural chemical and fertilizer prices

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Author Info

  • Ronald A. Babula

    (National Aggregate Analysis Section, Economic Research Service, US Department of Agriculture (ERS|USDA))

  • Agapi Somwaru

    (Data Service Center, ERS|USDA)

Abstract

A monthly vector autoregression (VAR) model of the following prices was estimated over the 1962:1-1990:6 period: crude oil price (CRUDE), industrial chemical price (INDCHEM), agricultural chemical price (AGCHEM), and fertilizer price (FERT). The VAR was shocked with a rise in CRUDE, and dynamic impulse response patterns in AGCHEM and FERT were observed. Results suggest that AGCHEM and FERT responses would be increases; would be mild for half a year; would thereafter gain in strength and peak within 19 to 21 months; and would last for 2.0 to 2.3 years. AGCHEM and FERT would rise by about one-fourth of the percentage increase in CRUDE which occurs over the response period.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Agribusiness.

Volume (Year): 8 (1992)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 243-252

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Handle: RePEc:wly:agribz:v:8:y:1992:i:3:p:243-252

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Web page: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1002/(ISSN)1520-6297

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Cited by:
  1. Du, Xiaodong & Yu, Cindy L. & Hayes, Dermot J., 2011. "Speculation and volatility spillover in the crude oil and agricultural commodity markets: A Bayesian analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 497-503, May.
  2. Hernandez, Manuel A. & Gardebroek, Cornelis, 2012. "Do energy prices stimulate food price volatility? Examining volatility transmission between US oil, ethanol and corn markets," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association 124583, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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