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Speculation and Volatility Spillover in the Crude Oil and Agricultural Commodity Markets: A Bayesian Analysis

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Author Info
Xiaodong Du () (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD), Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI))
Cindy L. Yu
Dermot J. Hayes () (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD), Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI))

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Abstract

This paper assesses the roles of various factors influencing the volatility of crude oil prices and the possible linkage between this volatility and agricultural commodity markets. Stochastic volatility models are applied to weekly crude oil, corn, and wheat futures prices from November 1998 to January 2009. Model parameters are estimated using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The main results are as follows. Speculation, scalping, and petroleum inventories are found to be important in explaining oil price variation. Several properties of crude oil price dynamics are established, including mean-reversion, a negative correlation between price and volatility, volatility clustering, and infrequent compound jumps. We find evidence of volatility spillover among crude oil, corn, and wheat markets after the fall of 2006. This could be largely explained by tightened interdependence between these markets induced by ethanol production.

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Paper provided by Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University in its series Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications with number 09-wp491.

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Date of creation: May 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ias:cpaper:09-wp491

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Related research
Keywords: Gibbs sampling; Merton jump; leverage effect; stochastic volatility. JEL Classification: G13; Q4.;

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  3. Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. " Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-78, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Uri, Noel D., 1996. "Changing crude oil price effects on US agricultural employment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 185-202, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Sadorsky, Perry, 2006. "Modeling and forecasting petroleum futures volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 467-488, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2008. "Financial Crash, Commodity Prices and Global Imbalances," NBER Working Papers 14521, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Morana, Claudio, 2001. "A semiparametric approach to short-term oil price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 325-338, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Darrell Duffie & Jun Pan & Kenneth Singleton, 2000. "Transform Analysis and Asset Pricing for Affine Jump-Diffusions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1343-1376, November.
  9. Chib, Siddhartha & Nardari, Federico & Shephard, Neil, 2002. "Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for stochastic volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 281-316, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Hamao, Yasushi & Masulis, Ronald W & Ng, Victor, 1990. "Correlations in Price Changes and Volatility across International Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 281-307. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Baele, Lieven, 2005. "Volatility Spillover Effects in European Equity Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(02), pages 373-401, June. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Jacquier, Eric & Polson, Nicholas G & Rossi, Peter E, 1994. "Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Volatility Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 371-89, October.
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  13. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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