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An analysis of time-varying commodity market price discovery

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  • Narayan, Paresh Kumar
  • Sharma, Susan Sunila

Abstract

We propose a model of time-varying price discovery based on a rolling-window error correction framework. We show that price discovery in nine commodities is dominated by the spot market, while, in only six commodities, price discovery is dominated by the futures market. Our findings, therefore, challenge the well-established view in commodity markets that it is the futures market which dominates the price discovery process. We also show the economic significance of price discovery through a portfolio construction and hedging strategy.

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  • Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2018. "An analysis of time-varying commodity market price discovery," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 122-133.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:57:y:2018:i:c:p:122-133
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2018.03.008
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