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Price Discovery in Agricultural Commodity Markets: Do Speculators Contribute?

Author

Listed:
  • Martin T. Bohl
  • Pierre L. Siklos
  • Martin Stefan
  • Claudia Wellenreuther

Abstract

Previous literature on price discovery in commodity markets is mainly focused on the question whether the spot or the futures market dominates the price discovery process. Little attention, however, has been paid to the question how the price discovery process is affected by futures speculation. Using different measures for speculation and hedging and a new price discovery metric, the present study analyzes this relationship for various agricultural commodities. The results indicate that speculative activity generally reduces the level of noise in the futures market, while increasing the relative contribution of the futures market to the price discovery process.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin T. Bohl & Pierre L. Siklos & Martin Stefan & Claudia Wellenreuther, 2018. "Price Discovery in Agricultural Commodity Markets: Do Speculators Contribute?," CQE Working Papers 7518, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    • Handle: RePEc:cqe:wpaper:7518
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    Cited by:

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    4. Hachmi Ben Ameur & Zied Ftiti & Waël Louhichi, 2022. "Revisiting the relationship between spot and futures markets: evidence from commodity markets and NARDL framework," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(1), pages 171-189, June.
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    6. Mukhlis MUKHLIS & Raja MASBAR & Sofyan SYAHNUR & M. Shabri Abd. MAJID, 2020. "Dynamic Causalities Between World Oil Price And Indonesia’S Cocoa Market: Evidence From The 2008 Global Financial Crisis And The 2011 European Debt Crisis," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(2), pages 217-233, June.
    7. Zhuo Chen & Bo Yan & Hanwen Kang & Liyu Liu, 2023. "Asymmetric price adjustment and price discovery in spot and futures markets of agricultural commodities," Review of Economic Design, Springer;Society for Economic Design, vol. 27(1), pages 139-162, February.
    8. Lin Xie & Jiahua Liao & Haiting Chen & Xuefei Yan & Xinyan Hu, 2021. "Is Futurization the Culprit for the Violent Fluctuation in China’s Apple Spot Price?," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-14, April.
    9. Roberto Louis Forestal & Shih-Ming Pi, 2021. "Using Artificial Neural networks and Optimal Scaling Model to Forecast Agriculture Commodity Price: An Ecological-economic Approach," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 11(3), pages 1-3.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodity Markets; Futures Speculation; Price Discovery;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market

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