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What role do futures markets play in Bitcoin pricing? Causality, cointegration and price discovery from a time-varying perspective?

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  • Hu, Yang
  • Hou, Yang Greg
  • Oxley, Les

Abstract

Recent papers that have explored spot and futures markets for Bitcoin have concluded that price discovery takes place either in the spot, or the futures market. Here, we consider the robustness of previous price discovery conclusions by investigating causal relationships, cointegration and price discovery between spot and futures markets for Bitcoin, using appropriate daily data and time-varying mechanisms. We apply the time-varying Granger causality test of Shi, Phillips, and Hurn [2018]; time-varying cointegration tests of Park and Hahn [1999], and time-varying information share methodologies, concluding that futures prices Granger cause spot prices and that futures prices dominate the price discovery process.

Suggested Citation

  • Hu, Yang & Hou, Yang Greg & Oxley, Les, 2020. "What role do futures markets play in Bitcoin pricing? Causality, cointegration and price discovery from a time-varying perspective?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:72:y:2020:i:c:s1057521920302131
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2020.101569
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    2. Mehmet Mucuk & Sümeyra Evren, 2023. "What Drives Inflation in High-inflation Countries? Evidence from Haiti, Sudan, Türkiye and Zambia," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2023(3), pages 238-266.
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    4. Chen, Yu-Lun & Chang, Yung Ting & Yang, J. Jimmy, 2023. "Cryptocurrency hacking incidents and the price dynamics of Bitcoin spot and futures," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PB).
    5. Dias, Ishanka K. & Fernando, J.M. Ruwani & Fernando, P. Narada D., 2022. "Does investor sentiment predict bitcoin return and volatility? A quantile regression approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
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    7. Lien, Donald, 2022. "Comparisons of Alternative Information Share Measures," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    8. Pati, Pratap Chandra, 2022. "Informativeness of CME Micro Bitcoin Futures in Pricing of Bitcoin: Intraday Evidence," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    9. Huaxin Wang-Lu, 2022. "Bitcoin Returns and Public Attention to COVID-19: Do Timing and Individualism Matter?," Papers 2205.04290, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2022.
    10. Rahul Kumar Singh, 2023. "Efficiency of Wheat Futures across APMC Mandis," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 21(3), pages 681-701, September.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bitcoin; Futures; Time-varying; Granger causality; Cointegration; Price discovery;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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