IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/inteco/v169y2022icp252-268.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does something change in the oil market with the COVID-19 crisis?

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, Dan
  • Farnoosh, Arash
  • Lantz, Frédéric

Abstract

This paper examines the price discovery of three international crude oil futures markets (WTI, Brent, INE) before and after the outbreak of the COVID-19 with the application of the information share and component share model. Our study shows that there is a structural break of the date of March 6, 2020, in each price series with Zivot and Andrew's unit root tests. Using Gregory and Hansen cointegration tests, cointegration relationships with the structural break in May 2020 are detected. According to results of Information Share (IS) and Component Share (CS) measures Brent futures price mainly plays a leading role in WTI and INE futures prices and occupies an absolutely dominant position all the time in the three crude oil futures markets systems. In the post-covid period, the price discovery efficiency of INE has been improved slightly but is still weak compared with other two markets. After the outbreak of COVID-19, the dominant position in price contribution in the relationship with INE has transferred from Brent to WTI. These findings offer practical implications for regulators and portfolio risk managers during the unprecedented uncertainty period provoked by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Dan & Farnoosh, Arash & Lantz, Frédéric, 2022. "Does something change in the oil market with the COVID-19 crisis?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 252-268.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inteco:v:169:y:2022:i:c:p:252-268
    DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2022.01.008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2110701722000087
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.inteco.2022.01.008?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1987. "Multiple Regression with Integrated Time Series," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 852, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    2. Shawkat M. Hammoudeh & Bradley T. Ewing & Mark A. Thompson, 2008. "Threshold Cointegration Analysis of Crude Oil Benchmarks," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 79-96.
    3. Gonzalo, Jesus & Granger, Clive W J, 1995. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 27-35, January.
    4. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    5. de Jong, Frank, 2002. "Measures of contributions to price discovery: a comparison," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 323-327, July.
    6. Nidhi Aggarwal & Susan Thomas, 2019. "When stock futures dominate price discovery," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 263-278, March.
    7. Szymon Wlazlowski & Bjorn Hagstromer & Monica Giulietti, 2011. "Causality in crude oil prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(24), pages 3337-3347.
    8. Bakas, Dimitrios & Triantafyllou, Athanasios, 2020. "Commodity price volatility and the economic uncertainty of pandemics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    9. Srinivas Nippani & Kenneth Washer, 2004. "SARS: a non-event for affected countries' stock markets?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(15), pages 1105-1110.
    10. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    11. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    12. Sugato Chakravarty & Huseyin Gulen & Stewart Mayhew, 2004. "Informed Trading in Stock and Option Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1235-1258, June.
    13. Juan Cabrera & Tao Wang & Jian Yang, 2009. "Do futures lead price discovery in electronic foreign exchange markets?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 137-156, February.
    14. Rittler, Daniel, 2012. "Price discovery and volatility spillovers in the European Union emissions trading scheme: A high-frequency analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 774-785.
    15. Garbade, Kenneth D & Silber, William L, 1983. "Price Movements and Price Discovery in Futures and Cash Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(2), pages 289-297, May.
    16. Donald Lien & Zijun Wang, 2019. "Quantile information share," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 38-55, January.
    17. G. Geoffrey Booth & Raymond W. So & Yiuman Tse, 1999. "Price discovery in the German equity index derivatives markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(6), pages 619-643, September.
    18. Jian Yang & Yinggang Zhou, 2020. "Return and volatility transmission between China's and international crude oil futures markets: A first look," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 860-884, June.
    19. Bourghelle, David & Jawadi, Fredj & Rozin, Philippe, 2021. "Oil price volatility in the context of Covid-19," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 39-49.
    20. Putniņš, Tālis J., 2013. "What do price discovery metrics really measure?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 68-83.
    21. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    22. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1995. "One Security, Many Markets: Determining the Contributions to Price Discovery," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1175-1199, September.
    23. Lehmann, Bruce N., 2002. "Some desiderata for the measurement of price discovery across markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 259-276, July.
    24. Gregory, Allan W & Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime and Trend Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(3), pages 555-560, August.
    25. Mizrach, Bruce & Neely, Christopher J., 2008. "Information shares in the US Treasury market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1221-1233, July.
    26. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    27. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    28. Palao, Fernando & Pardo, Ángel & Roig, Marta, 2020. "Is the leadership of the Brent-WTI threatened by China’s new crude oil futures market?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    29. Baillie, Richard T. & Geoffrey Booth, G. & Tse, Yiuman & Zabotina, Tatyana, 2002. "Price discovery and common factor models," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 309-321, July.
    30. Jan Bentzen, 2007. "Does OPEC influence crude oil prices? Testing for co-movements and causality between regional crude oil prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(11), pages 1375-1385.
    31. Lin Wang & Ali M Kutan, 2013. "The Impact of Natural Disasters on Stock Markets: Evidence from Japan and the US," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 55(4), pages 672-686, December.
    32. Bingcheng Yan & Eric Zivot, 2007. "A Structural Analysis of Price Discovery Measures," Working Papers UWEC-2006-08-FC, University of Washington, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2007.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mercan Hatipoglu, 2023. "What Determined Stock Returns in Turkey from 1990 to 2022: Evidence from Structural Break Regression," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 73(73-1), pages 185-202, June.
    2. Lien, Donald & Shrestha, Keshab & Lee, Lianne Mei Quin, 2022. "Analytical properties of Hasbrouck and generalized information shares," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hu, Yang & Hou, Yang Greg & Oxley, Les, 2020. "What role do futures markets play in Bitcoin pricing? Causality, cointegration and price discovery from a time-varying perspective?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    2. Li, Wei-Xuan & Chen, Clara Chia-Sheng & Nguyen, James, 2022. "Which market dominates the price discovery in currency futures? The case of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and the Intercontinental Exchange," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    3. Yang Hu & Yang (Greg) Hou & Les Oxley, 2019. "Spot and Futures Prices of Bitcoin: Causality, Cointegration and Price Discovery from a Time-Varying Perspective," Working Papers in Economics 19/13, University of Waikato.
    4. Christoph Schmidhammer & Sebastian Lobe & Klaus Röder, 2016. "The day the index rose 11 %: a clinical study on price discovery reversal," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 79-106, January.
    5. Hou, Yang & Li, Steven, 2017. "Time-Varying Price Discovery and Autoregressive Loading Factors: Evidence from S&P 500 Cash and E-Mini Futures Markets," MPRA Paper 81999, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Yu-Lun Chen, 2020. "News announcements and price discovery in the RMB–USD market," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1487-1508, May.
    7. Sarveshwar Kumar Inani, 2017. "Price discovery in Indian stock index futures market: new evidence based on intraday data," International Journal of Indian Culture and Business Management, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 14(1), pages 23-43.
    8. Wu, Zhen-Xing & Gau, Yin-Feng & Chen, Yu-Lun, 2023. "Price discovery and triangular arbitrage in currency markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    9. Hou, Yang & Nartea, Gilbert, 2017. "Price Discovery in the Stock Index Futures Market: Evidence from the Chinese stock market crash," MPRA Paper 81995, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Christoph Schmidhammer & Sebastian Lobe & Klaus Röder, 2016. "The day the index rose 11 %: a clinical study on price discovery reversal," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 79-106, January.
    11. Joseph, Kishore & Garcia, Philip & Peterson, Paul E., 2016. "Does the Boxed Beef Price Inform the Live Cattle Futures Price?," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 236166, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Chen, Wei-Peng & Chung, Huimin & Lien, Donald, 2016. "Price discovery in the S&P 500 index derivatives markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 438-452.
    13. Yu-Lun Chen & Yin-Feng Gau & Wen-Ju Liao, 2016. "Trading activities and price discovery in foreign currency futures markets," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 793-818, May.
    14. Damien Wallace & Petko S. Kalev & Guanhua Lian, 2019. "The evolution of price discovery in us equity and derivatives markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(9), pages 1122-1136, September.
    15. Donald Lien & Ziling Wang & Xiaojian Yu, 2021. "Quantile information share under Markov regime‐switching," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(4), pages 493-513, April.
    16. Fricke, Christoph & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2011. "Does the "Bund" dominate price discovery in Euro bond futures? Examining information shares," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1057-1072, May.
    17. Santos, Francisco Luna & Garcia, Márcio Gomes Pinto & Medeiros, Marcelo Cunha, 2015. "Price Discovery in Brazilian FX Markets," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 35(1), October.
    18. Sun, Zhuowei & Dunne, Peter G. & Li, Youwei, 2015. "Price discovery in the dual-platform US Treasury market," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 95-110.
    19. Sebastiano Michele Zema, 2020. "Directed Acyclic Graph based Information Shares for Price Discovery," LEM Papers Series 2020/28, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    20. Shrestha, Keshab & Subramaniam, Ravichandran & Thiyagarajan, Thangarajah, 2020. "Price Discovery in Agricultural Markets," American Business Review, Pompea College of Business, University of New Haven, vol. 23(1), pages 53-69, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil market; Price discovery; Structural break;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:inteco:v:169:y:2022:i:c:p:252-268. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/21107017 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.