Causality in Crude Oil Prices
AbstractThe world market of crude oil has three well established benchmarks used for pricing of other crudes: West Texas Intermediate, Europe Brent and Dubai Fateh. The relevance of these are however declining, as the output of the benchmarks is decreasing, and as an increasing share of world crude produced is of worse quality than the benchmarks (pointed out by e.g. Montepeque, 2005). Particularly the segment of medium density, sour crudes is lacking a reliable benchmark. We apply Granger causality tests to study the price dependencies of 32 crude oils empirically. The aim is to establish what crudes are setting the prices and what crudes are just follow the general market trend. The investigation is performed globally as well as for different quality segments, geographical segments and the segments of OPEC and non-OPEC crudes. The results indicate that crude oil price analysts should follow at least four different crudes that are if not benchmarks, at least good price indicators. While the well-established benchmarks WTI and Brent still lead the market, they are not the only crude prices worth paying attention to. In particular, Russian Urals drives global prices in a significant way, and Iran Seri Kerir is a significant price setter within OPEC. Dubai Fateh does not display any significant influence as a price setter. The lack of a reliable benchmark for medium density, sour crudes is thereby confirmed.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 1577.
Date of creation: 18 Jan 2007
Date of revision:
Granger causality; crude oil; benchmark; West Texas Intermediate; Europe Brent; Dubai Fateh; Russian Urals; Iran Seri Kerir; price dynamics;
Other versions of this item:
- G19 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Other
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-01-28 (All new papers)
- NEP-CIS-2007-01-28 (Confederation of Independent States)
- NEP-ENE-2007-01-28 (Energy Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- S. Gurcan Gulen, 1999. "Regionalization in the World Crude Oil Market: Further Evidence," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 125-139.
- Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
- Lin, Sharon Xiaowen & Tamvakis, Michael N., 2004. "Effects of NYMEX trading on IPE Brent Crude futures markets: a duration analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 77-82, January.
- S. Gurcan Gulen, 1997. "Regionalization in the World Crude Oil Market," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 109-126.
- Bertrand Candelon & Marc Joëts & Sessi Tokpavi, 2012. "Testing for crude oil markets globalization during extreme price movements," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-28, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
- Meyler, Aidan, 2009. "The pass through of oil prices into euro area consumer liquid fuel prices in an environment of high and volatile oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 867-881, November.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.