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Price discovery and volatility spillovers in the European Union emissions trading scheme: A high-frequency analysis

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  • Rittler, Daniel
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    Abstract

    This paper models the relationship of European Union Allowance spot- and futures-prices within the second commitment period of the European Union emissions trading scheme. Based on high-frequency data, we analyze the transmission of information in first and second conditional moments. To reveal long-run price discovery, we compute common factor weights of Schwarz and Szakmary (1994) and information shares of Hasbrouck (1995) based on estimated coefficients of a VECM. To analyze the short-run dynamics, we perform Granger-causality tests. We identify the futures market to be the leader of the long-run price discovery process, whereas the informational role of the futures market increases over time. In addition, we employ a version of the UECCC-GARCH model as introduced by Conrad and Karanasos (2010) to analyze the volatility transmission structure. The volatility analysis indicates a close relationship between the volatility dynamics of both markets, whereas in particular we observe spillovers from the futures to the spot market. As a whole the investigation reveals that the futures market incorporates information first and then transfers the information to the spot market.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

    Volume (Year): 36 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 774-785

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:36:y:2012:i:3:p:774-785

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

    Related research

    Keywords: CO2 emission allowances; Volatility transmission; Spot and futures prices; Causality;

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    References

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    Cited by:
    1. Medina, Vicente & Pardo, Ángel & Pascual, Roberto, 2014. "The timeline of trading frictions in the European carbon market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 378-394.
    2. Reboredo, Juan C., 2014. "Volatility spillovers between the oil market and the European Union carbon emission market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 229-234.
    3. Shawkat Hammoudeh & Amine Lahiani & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2014. "Asymmetric and nonlinear passthrough of energy prices to CO2 emission allowance prices," Working Papers 2014-082, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    4. Conrad, Christian & Weber, Enzo, 2013. "Measuring Persistence in Volatility Spillovers," Working Papers 0543, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    5. Mizrach, Bruce & Otsubo, Yoichi, 2014. "The market microstructure of the European climate exchange," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 107-116.
    6. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Kizys, Renatas & Floros, Christos, 2014. "Dynamic Spillover Effects in Futures Markets," MPRA Paper 53876, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Schultz, Emma & Swieringa, John, 2014. "Catalysts for price discovery in the European Union Emissions Trading System," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 112-122.
    8. Hai-Chuan Xu & Wei Zhang & Xiong Xiong & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2014. "An agent-based computational model for China's stock market and stock index futures market," Papers 1404.1052, arXiv.org.
    9. Oscar Carchano & Vicente Medina Martínez & Ángel Pardo Tornero, 2012. "Rolling over EUAs and CERs," Working Papers. Serie AD 2012-15, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    10. Chevallier, Julien, 2013. "Variance risk-premia in CO2 markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 598-605.
    11. Shawkat Hammoudeh & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2014. "What explains the short-term dynamics of the prices of CO2 emissions?," NIPE Working Papers 04/2014, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    12. Menelaos Karanasos & Alexandros Paraskevopoulos & Faek Menla Ali & Michail Karoglou & Stavroula Yfanti, 2014. "Modelling Returns and Volatilities During Financial Crises: a Time Varying Coefficient Approach," Papers 1403.7179, arXiv.org.

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