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Price discovery in the U.S. treasury market

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Author Info
Bruce Mizrach
Christopher J. Neely

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Abstract

This paper is the first to characterize the tatonnement of high-frequency returns from U.S. Treasury spot and futures markets. In particular, we highlight the previously neglected role of the futures markets in price discovery. The lower-bound estimate of bivariate information shares for 30-year Treasury futures typically exceeds 50% from 1998 on. Standard liquidity measures, including the proportion of trades and relative bid-ask spreads, explain daily information shares. These conclusions still hold when one controls for days of macroeconomic announcements. Finally, a 5-dimensional cointegrated system explains a high percentage of Treasury returns. In that system, the 30-year futures contract and the 5-year spot market dominate price discovery. ; Earlier title: The microstructure of bond market tatonnement

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2005-070.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2005-070

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Keywords: Bond market

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1997. "What moves the bond market?," Research Paper 9706, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  2. T. Clifton Green, 2004. "Economic News and the Impact of Trading on Bond Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1201-1234, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Baillie, Richard T. & Geoffrey Booth, G. & Tse, Yiuman & Zabotina, Tatyana, 2002. "Price discovery and common factor models," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 309-321, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Huang, Roger D. & Cai, Jun & Wang, Xiaozu, 2002. "Information-Based Trading in the Treasury Note Interdealer Broker Market," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 269-296, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1991. " Measuring the Information Content of Stock Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 179-207, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Gonzalo, Jesus & Granger, Clive W J, 1995. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 27-35, January.
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  7. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2005. "Real-Time Price Discovery in Stock, Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets," NBER Working Papers 11312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1995. " One Security, Many Markets: Determining the Contributions to Price Discovery," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1175-99, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L & Valente, Giorgio, 2005. "The Empirical Failure of the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Bond Yields," CEPR Discussion Papers 5259, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Pierluigi Balduzzi & Edwin J. Elton & T. Clifton Green, 1997. "Economic News and the Yield Curve: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 98-005, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
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  13. Vayanos, Dimitri & Weill, Pierre-Olivier, 2006. "A Search-Based Theory of the On-the-Run Phenomenon," CEPR Discussion Papers 5965, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Lehmann, Bruce N., 2002. "Some desiderata for the measurement of price discovery across markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 259-276, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Engsted, Tom & Tanggaard, Carsten, 1994. "Cointegration and the US term structure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 167-181, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Hall, Anthony D & Anderson, Heather M & Granger, Clive W J, 1992. "A Cointegration Analysis of Treasury Bill Yields," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 116-26, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Madhavan, Ananth & Richardson, Matthew & Roomans, Mark, 1997. "Why Do Security Prices Change? A Transaction-Level Analysis of NYSE Stocks," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 1035-64.
    Other versions:
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Coluzzi, Chiara & Ginebri, Sergio & Turco, Manuel, 2008. "Measuring and Analyzing the Liquidity of the Italian Treasury Security Wholesale Secondary Market," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp08044, University of Molise, Dept. SEGeS. [Downloadable!]
  2. Mardi Dungey & Michael McKenzie & Vanessa Smith, 2007. "Empirical Evidence On Jumps In The Term Structure Of The Us Treasury Market," CAMA Working Papers 2007-25, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  3. Bruce Mizrach & Christopher J. Neely, 2006. "The transition to electronic communications networks in the secondary treasury market," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 527-542. [Downloadable!]
  4. Joshua V. Rosenberg & Leah G. Traub, 2006. "Price discovery in the foreign currency futures and spot market," Staff Reports 262, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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