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Stochastic Interest Rates And Price Discovery In Selected Commodity Markets

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  • Hector O. ZAPATA
  • T. Randall FORTENBERY

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    Abstract

    The temporal relationship between Chicago corn and soybean cash prices, nearby futures prices, and interest rates is examined using daily 1980-1989 data. Johansen cointegration tests suggest joint movement of the three series over the data period considered. In addition, analyses of individual crop years, which is consistent with previous work, shows co-movement between cash, futures, and interest rates in years when bivariate cointegration between cash and futures prices was not found. The results provide initial empirical evidence that a potential limitation of previous research in the study of cash- futures simple efficiency has been the exclusion of the interest rate as a common stochastic factor explaining equilibrium in models of cash and futures prices.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by University of Wisconsin Madison, AAE in its series Staff Papers with number 383.

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    Date of creation: Mar 1995
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    Handle: RePEc:wop:wiaesp:383

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    Postal: University of Wisconsin, Dept. of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 427 Lorch Street, Madison, WI 53706
    Phone: 608-262-8966
    Fax: 608-262-4376
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    Web page: http://www.aae.wisc.edu/
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    1. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    2. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1988. "Optimal Inference in Cointegrated Systems," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 866R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Aug 1989.
    3. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cahiers de recherche 8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    4. Hans R. Stoll, . "Commodity Futures and Spot Price Determination and Hedging in Capital Market Equilibrium," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 17-79, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    5. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
    6. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
    7. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    8. Naik, Gopal & Leuthold, Raymond M., 1991. "A Note On The Factors Affecting Corn Basis Relationships," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 23(01), July.
    9. Kitchen, John & Denbaly, Mark, 1987. "Arbitrage Conditions, Interest Rates, and Commodity Prices," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, issue 2.
    10. Craig S. Hakkio & Mark Rush, 1990. "Cointegration: how short is the long run?," Research Working Paper 90-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    11. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-28, August.
    12. Baillie, Richard T & Myers, Robert J, 1991. "Bivariate GARCH Estimation of the Optimal Commodity Futures Hedge," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(2), pages 109-24, April-Jun.
    13. Garbade, Kenneth D & Silber, William L, 1983. "Price Movements and Price Discovery in Futures and Cash Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(2), pages 289-97, May.
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