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Price Discovery in the World Sugar Futures and Cash Markets: Implications for the Domincan Republic

Author

Listed:
  • Zapata, T. Randall Fortenbery

    (Louisiana State University)

  • Armstrong, Delroy

    (U of Wisconsin)

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between #11 sugar futures prices traded in New York and the world cash prices for exported sugar. It was found that the futures market for sugar leads the cash market in price discovery. However, we fail to find evidence that changes in the cash price causes changes in futures price, that is, causality is unidirectional from futures to cash. The finding of cointegration between futures and cash prices suggests that the sugar futures contract is a useful vehicle for reducing overall market price risk faced by cash market participants selling at the world price (i.e., not enjoying favorable trade incentives). Further reliability on the usefulness of the WSF as a price discovery market is found through the impulse response functions; a shock in the futures price innovation generates a quick (one month) and positive response in futures and cash prices; but not vice versa.

Suggested Citation

  • Zapata, T. Randall Fortenbery & Armstrong, Delroy, 2005. "Price Discovery in the World Sugar Futures and Cash Markets: Implications for the Domincan Republic," Staff Paper Series 469, University of Wisconsin, Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecl:wisagr:469
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hector O. Zapata & T. Randall Fortenbery, 1996. "Stochastic Interest Rates and Price Discovery in Selected Commodity Markets," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 18(4), pages 643-654.
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    3. Hammoudeh, S.M. & Sarafrazi, S. & Chang, C-L. & McAleer, M.J., 2011. "The Dynamics of Energy-Grain Prices with Open Interest," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2011-19, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    4. Pedro Linhares Rossi & Guilherme Santos Mello, 2014. "The Fourth Dimension: Derivatives As A Form Of Capital," Anais do XLI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 41st Brazilian Economics Meeting] 025, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    5. Elumalai, K. & Rangasamy, N. & Sharma, R.K., 2009. "Price Discovery in India’s Agricultural Commodity Futures Markets," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 64(3), pages 1-9.
    6. Sari, Ramazan & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Chang, Chia-Lin & McAleer, Michael, 2012. "Causality between market liquidity and depth for energy and grains," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1683-1692.
    7. Covindassamy, Genevre & Robe, Michel A. & Wallen, Jonathan, 2016. "Sugar With Your Coffee?: Financials, Fundamentals, and Soft Price Uncertainty," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 8588, Inter-American Development Bank.
    8. Ricardo de Medeiros Carneiro & Pedro Rossi & Guilherme Santos Mello & Marcos Vinicius Chiliatto-Leite, 2015. "The Fourth Dimension," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 47(4), pages 641-662, December.
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    10. Sendhil, R. & Kar, Amit & Mathur, V.C. & Jha, Girish K., 2013. "Price Discovery, Transmission and Volatility: Evidence from Agricultural Commodity Futures," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 26(1), June.
    11. P. Srinivasan & P. Ibrahim, 2012. "Price Discovery and Asymmetric Volatility Spillovers in Indian Spot-Futures Gold Markets," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 5(3), pages 65-80, December.
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    JEL classification:

    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices

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