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Efficiency tests of agricultural commodity futures markets in China

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  • Wang, H. Holly
  • Ke, Bingfan
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    Abstract

    The efficiency of the Chinese wheat and soybean futures markets is studied. Formal statistical tests were conducted based on Johansen’s cointegration approach for three different cashmarkets and six different futures forecasting horizons ranging from1 week to 4 months.The results suggest a long-termequilibrium relationship between the futures price and cash price for soybeans and weak short-term efficiency in the soybean futures market. The futures market for wheat is inefficient, which may be caused by overspeculation and government intervention.

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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/118441
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society in its journal Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics.

    Volume (Year): 49 (2005)
    Issue (Month): 2 (June)
    Pages:

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    Handle: RePEc:ags:aareaj:118441

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    Related research

    Keywords: cointegration; futures market; price; soybean; wheat; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty;

    References

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    1. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
    2. McKenzie, Andrew M. & Holt, Matthew T., 1998. "Market Efficiency In Agricultural Futures Markets," 1998 Annual meeting, August 2-5, Salt Lake City, UT 20933, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    3. Psaradakis, Zacharias, 1994. "A comparison of tests of linear hypotheses in cointegrated vector autoregressive models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 137-144, June.
    4. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October.
    5. Phillips, Peter C B & Hansen, Bruce E, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125, January.
    6. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    7. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:
    1. Inoue, Takeshi & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2012. "Market efficiency of commodity futures in India," IDE Discussion Papers 370, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    2. Liu, Qingfu & Wong, Ieokhou & An, Yunbi & Zhang, Jinqing, 2014. "Asymmetric Information and Volatility Forecasting in Commodity Futures Markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 79-97.
    3. Singh, N.P. & Kumar, Ranjit & Singh, R.P. & Jain, Praveen Kumar, 2005. "Is Futures Market Mitigating Price Risk: An Exploration of Wheat and Maize Market," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 18(2005).
    4. Wen-Ge Fu & Sizhong Sun & Zhang-Yue Zhou, 2011. "Technical efficiency of food processing in China: the case of flour and rice processing," China Agricultural Economic Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 3(3), pages 321-334, September.
    5. repec:ddj:fserec:y:2012:p:31-38 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Jabir Ali & Kriti Bardhan Gupta, 2011. "Efficiency in agricultural commodity futures markets in India: Evidence from cointegration and causality tests," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 71(2), pages 162-178, July.
    7. Pankaj Kumar GUPTA & Sunita RAVI, 2012. "Commodity Market Inefficiencies and Inflationary Pressures - India’s Economic Policy Dilemma," Risk in Contemporary Economy, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, pages 31-34.
    8. Shi Zheng & Pei Xu & Zhigang Wang, 2011. "Factors affecting Chinese enterprises' hedging decision making," China Agricultural Economic Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 3(4), pages 476-488, November.

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