Price discovery in spot and futures markets: A reconsideration
AbstractWe reconsider the issue of price discovery in spot and futures markets. We use a threshold error correction model to allow for arbitrage operations to have an impact on the return dynamics. We estimate the model using quote midpoints, and we modify the model to account for time-varying transaction costs. We find that the futures market leads in the process of price discovery. The lead of the futures market is more pronounced in the presence of arbitrage signals. Thus, when the deviation between the spot and the futures market is large, the spot market tends to adjust to the futures market. --
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Center for Financial Studies (CFS) in its series CFS Working Paper Series with number 2009/27.
Date of creation: 2009
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Futures Markets; Threshold Error Correction; Information Shares; Common Factor Weights;
Other versions of this item:
- Erik Theissen, 2012. "Price discovery in spot and futures markets: a reconsideration," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(10), pages 969-987, November.
- Theissen, Erik, 2011. "Price discovery in spot and futures markets: A reconsideration," CFR Working Papers 09-17 [rev.], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
- Theissen, Erik, 2009. "Price discovery in spot and futures markets: A reconsideration," CFR Working Papers 09-17, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
- G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies
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