A partially linear approach to modelling the dynamics of spot and futures prices
AbstractThis paper considers the dynamics of spot and futures prices in the presence of arbitrage. A partially linear error correction model is proposed where the adjustment coefficient is allowed to depend non-linearly on the lagged price difference. The model is estimated using data on the DAX index and the DAX futures contract. We find that the adjustment is indeed nonlinear. The linear alternative is rejected. The speed of price adjustment is increasing almost monotonically with the magnitude of the price difference. --
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR) in its series CFR Working Papers with number 13-01.
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
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Futures Markets; Cointegration; Partially linear models; Nonparametric methods;
Other versions of this item:
- Gaul, Jürgen & Theissen, Erik, 2008. "A partially linear approach to modelling the dynamics of spot and futures prices," CFS Working Paper Series 2008/12, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
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