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Trading activity and price discovery in Bitcoin futures markets

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  • Hung, Jui-Cheng
  • Liu, Hung-Chun
  • Yang, J. Jimmy

Abstract

This study examines the impact of trading activities on price discovery in the Bitcoin futures markets. We find that trades of hedgers are positively correlated with the modified information shares in both CME and CBOE futures markets, suggesting that their trading promotes futures market efficiency. Retailers’ trading activity relates negatively to the price discovery of the CME Bitcoin futures and thus destabilizes the market. Speculators exert positive (negative) impact on the price discovery in the CME (CBOE) Bitcoin futures. Our finding that CME’s Bitcoin futures exhibit superior price discovery than CBOE’s provides plausible justification for CBOE’s decision in March 2019 to suspend further listings of Bitcoin futures contracts.

Suggested Citation

  • Hung, Jui-Cheng & Liu, Hung-Chun & Yang, J. Jimmy, 2021. "Trading activity and price discovery in Bitcoin futures markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 107-120.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:62:y:2021:i:c:p:107-120
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2021.03.001
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    3. Zhang, Chuanhai & Ma, Huan & Liao, Xiaosai, 2023. "Futures trading activity and the jump risk of spot market: Evidence from the bitcoin market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    4. Huang, Guan-Ying & Gau, Yin-Feng & Wu, Zhen-Xing, 2022. "Price discovery in fiat currency and cryptocurrency markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    5. Erdong Chen & Mengzhong Ma & Zixin Nie, 2024. "Perpetual Future Contracts in Centralized and Decentralized Exchanges: Mechanism and Traders' Behavior," Papers 2402.03953, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    6. Tsang, Kwok Ping & Yang, Zichao, 2022. "Do connections pay off in the bitcoin market?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1-18.
    7. Liwei Jin & Xianghui Yuan & Shihao Wang & Peiran Li & Feng Lian, 2022. "Trades or quotes: Which drives price discovery? Evidence from Chinese index futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(12), pages 2235-2247, December.
    8. Weige Huang & Xiang Gao, 2023. "Forecasting Bitcoin Futures: A Lasso-BMA Two-Step Predictor Selection for Investment and Hedging Strategies," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(1), pages 21582440231, January.
    9. Bourghelle, David & Jawadi, Fredj & Rozin, Philippe, 2022. "Do collective emotions drive bitcoin volatility? A triple regime-switching vector approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 294-306.
    10. David Bourghelle & Fredj Jawadi & Philippe Rozin, 2022. "Do collective emotions drive bitcoin volatility? A triple regime-switching vector approach [Est-ce que les émotions collectives ont une influence directrice sur la volatilité?]," Post-Print hal-04412029, HAL.
    11. Jinghong Wu & Ke Xu & Xinwei Zheng & Jian Chen, 2021. "Fractional cointegration in bitcoin spot and futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(9), pages 1478-1494, September.
    12. Yu‐Lun Chen & J. Jimmy Yang, 2024. "Time‐varying price discovery in regular and microbitcoin futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(1), pages 103-121, January.
    13. Jakob Albers & Mihai Cucuringu & Sam Howison & Alexander Y. Shestopaloff, 2021. "Fragmentation, Price Formation, and Cross-Impact in Bitcoin Markets," Papers 2108.09750, arXiv.org.
    14. Zhang, Chuanhai & Ma, Huan & Arkorful, Gideon Bruce & Peng, Zhe, 2023. "The impacts of futures trading on volatility and volatility asymmetry of Bitcoin returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    15. Sobti, Neharika & Sehgal, Sanjay & Ilango, Balakrishnan, 2021. "How do macroeconomic news surprises affect round-the-clock price discovery of gold?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bitcoin futures; Trading activity; Price discovery; COT reports; Modified information share;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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