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Index Arbitrage and Nonlinear Dynamics between the S&P 500 Futures and Cash

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Author Info
Dwyer, Gerald P, Jr
Locke, Peter R
Yu, Wei

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Abstract

We use a cost of carry model with nonzero transaction costs to motivate estimation of a nonlinear dynamic relationship between the S&P 500 futures and cash indexes. Discontinuous arbitrage suggests that a threshold error correction mechanism may characterize many aspects of the relationship between the futures and cash indexes. We use minute-by-minute data on the S&P 500 futures and cash indexes. The results indicate that nonlinear dynamics are important and related to arbitrage, and suggest that arbitrage is associated with more rapid convergence of the basis to the cost of carry than would be indicated by a linear model. Article published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Financial Studies in its journal, The Review of Financial Studies.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies in its journal Review of Financial Studies.

Volume (Year): 9 (1996)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 301-32
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Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:9:y:1996:i:1:p:301-32

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1990. "Arbitrage in Stock Index Futures," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(1), pages S7-31, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Dick van Dijk & Timo Teräsvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models - A Survey Of Recent Developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. A.J. Menkveld, 2001. "Splitting orders in fragmented markets - evidence from cross-listed stocks," Econometric Institute Report 227, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Juan A. Lafuente & Manuel Illueca Muñoz, 2003. "The Effect Of Futures Trading Activity On The Distribution Of Spot Market Returns," Working Papers. Serie EC 2003-23, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie). [Downloadable!]
  4. R. M. Eldridge & Maurice Peat & Max Stevenson, 2003. "The Role of Intra-Day and Inter-Day Data Effects in Determining Linear and Nonlinear Granger Causality Between Australian Futures and Cash Index Markets," Working Paper Series 122, School of Finance and Economics, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
  5. Bert Menkveld, 2001. "Splitting Orders in Fragmented Markets," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-059/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  6. Joseph K.W. Fung & Philip Yu, 2007. "Order Imbalance and the Dynamics of Index and Futures Prices," Working Papers 072007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
  7. Dijk, Dick van & Franses, Philip Hans, 1997. "Nonlinear error-correction models for interest rates in the Netherlands," Econometric Institute Report 41, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Ying Liu, 2001. "Modelling Mortgage Rate Changes with a Smooth Transition Error-Correction Model," Working Papers 01-23, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
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