Index arbitrage and nonlinear dynamics between the S&P 500 futures and cash
AbstractWe use a cost of carry model with nonzero transactions costs to motivate estimation of a nonlinear dynamic relationship between the S&P 500 futures and cash indexes. Discontinuous arbitrage suggests that a threshold error correction mechanism may characterize many aspects of the relationship between the futures and cash indexes. We use minute-by-minute data on the S&P 500 futures and cash indexes. The results indicate that nonlinear dynamics are important and related to arbitrage and suggest that arbitrage is associated with more rapid convergence of the basis to the cost of carry than would be indicated by a linear model.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in its series Working Paper with number 95-17.
Date of creation: 1995
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Review of Financial Studies, Spring 1996
Other versions of this item:
- Dwyer, Gerald P, Jr & Locke, Peter R & Yu, Wei, 1996. "Index Arbitrage and Nonlinear Dynamics between the S&P 500 Futures and Cash," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 301-32.
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- Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1990. "Arbitrage in Stock Index Futures," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(1), pages S7-31, January.
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