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A Threshold Error Correction Model for Intraday Futures and Index Returns

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Author Info

  • Martens, M.
  • Kofman, P.
  • Vorst, T.C.F.

Abstract

Index-futures arbitragers only enter into the market if the deviation from the arbitrage relation is sufficiently large to compensate for transaction costs and associated interest rate and dividend risks. We estimate the band around the theoretical futures price within which arbitrage is not profitable for most arbitragers, using a threshold autoregression model. Combining these thresholds with an error-correction model, we show that the impact of the mispricing error is increasing with the magnitude of that error and that the information effect of lagged futures returns on index returns is significantly larger when the mispricing error is negative. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics in its series Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers with number 14/95.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 1995
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:1995-14

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Keywords: ECONOMETRICS; Financial markets; Error Correction Model;

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Cited by:
  1. Hansen, Bruce E. & Seo, Byeongseon, 2002. "Testing for two-regime threshold cointegration in vector error-correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 293-318, October.
  2. McMillan, David G., 2007. "Non-linear forecasting of stock returns: Does volume help?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 115-126.
  3. David G. McMillan, 2009. "Non-linear interest rate dynamics and forecasting: evidence for US and Australian interest rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 139-155.
  4. Anderson, H.M. & Vahid, F., 2001. "Market Architecture and Nonlinear Dynamics of Australian Stock and Future Indices," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 3/01, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  5. Coakley, Jerry & Fuertes, Ana-Maria, 2006. "Testing for sign and amplitude asymmetries using threshold autoregressions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 623-654, April.
  6. Mustapha Baghli, 2004. "Modelling the FF/MM rate by threshold cointegration analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 533-548.
  7. David G. McMillan, 2005. "Is non-linearity a permanent feature? Evidence from recursive and rolling estimation," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(4), pages 229-232, July.
  8. David G. McMillan, 2005. "Threshold adjustment in spot-futures metals prices," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 5-8, January.
  9. Guidolin, Massimo & Hyde, Stuart & McMillan, David & Ono, Sadayuki, 2009. "Non-linear predictability in stock and bond returns: When and where is it exploitable?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 373-399.
  10. Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde & David McMillan & Sadayuki Ono, 2010. "Does the macroeconomy predict U.K. asset returns in a nonlinear fashion? comprehensive out-of-sample evidence," Working Papers 2010-039, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  11. David McMillan, 2004. "Non-linear predictability of UK stock market returns," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 63, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  12. Nick Taylor & Dick van Dijk & Philip Hans Franses & André Lucas, 1999. "SETS, Arbitrage Activity, and Stock Price Dynamics," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 99-003/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  13. McMillan, David G., 2005. "Smooth-transition error-correction in exchange rates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 217-232, August.
  14. Root, Thomas H. & Lien, Donald, 2003. "Can modeling the natural gas futures market as a threshold cointegrated system improve hedging and forecasting performance?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 117-133.
  15. McMillan, David G., 2005. "Non-linear dynamics in international stock market returns," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 81-91.
  16. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2005. "Testing for two-regime threshold cointegration in the parallel and official markets for foreign currency in Greece," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 665-682, July.
  17. Roeger, Edward & Leibtag, Ephraim S., 2011. "How Retail Beef and Bread Prices Respond to Changes in Ingredient and Input and Costs," Economic Research Report 102757, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  18. Theissen, Erik, 2011. "Price discovery in spot and futures markets: A reconsideration," CFR Working Papers 09-17 [rev.], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
  19. Mendonca, Gui Pedro, 2008. "Structural Breaks, Regime Change and Asymmetric Adjustment: A Short and Long Run Global Approach to the Output/Unemployment Dynamics," MPRA Paper 14648, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  20. McKenzie, Andrew M. & Pede, Valerien O., 2005. "Integration In Benin Maize Market: An Application Of Threshold Cointegration Analysis," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19293, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

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