A threshold error-correction model for intraday futures and index returns
AbstractIndex-futures arbitragers only enter into the market if the deviation from the arbitrage relation is sufficiently large to compensate for transaction costs and associated interest rate and dividend risks. We estimate the band around the theoretical futures price within which arbitrage is not profitable for most arbitragers, using a threshold autoregression model. Combining these thresholds with an error-correction model, we show that the impact of the mispricing error is increasing with the magnitude of that error and that the information effect of lagged futures returns on index returns is significantly larger when the mispricing error is negative. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.
Volume (Year): 13 (1998)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
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Web page: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0883-7252/
Other versions of this item:
- Martens, M. & Kofman, P. & Vorst, T.C.F., 1995. "A Threshold Error Correction Model for Intraday Futures and Index Returns," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 14/95, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
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